This Sunday’s local elections dictated a clear winner above all others, a great loser, two cases of parties in which the relationship between expectations and results dictated the outcome. And they also allow us to leave three signs for the immediate political future in Portugal.
WINNER. Let’s start with the winner, who was without any doubt and your PSD. After many years, the Social Democrats regained leadership of the powerful National Association of Municipalities, as a result of being the party with the most council presidencies in the country. The PSD recovered this Sunday from a disadvantage of more than thirty cameras to the PS (from 114 to 136). Furthermore, the Social Democrats triumphed in the country’s five largest municipalities: Lisbon, Porto, Sintra, Gaia and Cascais.
DEFEATED. One of those mantras in politics is that no matter what happens, the PCP e a CDU they always claim victory on election nights. The truth is that the clash was so strong that not even Yesterday he managed to do this exercise. The communists went from 19 to 12 chambers across the country (at the beginning of the last decade they still ruled 34) and, above all, they lost their crown jewels, and Évora, the last district capitals that they still led.
EXPECTATIONS I. O PSif we compare it with the results of the last local councils, this Sunday it suffered a heavy defeat, clearly falling behind the PSD and losing in the biggest chambers in the country. Even so, it managed to remain a large national autonomous party, obtained a total number of votes in the country similar to that of four years ago, and despite many significant defeats, it also obtained tasty victories: Évora, Coimbra, Viseu, Faro, Bragança. Above all, after two huge electoral defeats in legislative elections in 24 and 25, which took it from an absolute majority to becoming the third force in the country, the PS and José Luís Carneiro have now managed to breathe a sigh of relief and stay afloat.
Expectativas 2. This is another case in which the relationship between expectations and results takes on important contours in these local authorities. THE it came from zero chambers in the country and only 19 councilors were elected in all chambers. It has now achieved three victories in municipal chambers, São Vicente, Albufeira, Entroncamento, and multiplied by seven the number of elected councilors, in addition to obtaining 600 thousand votes, three times the result of 2021. Even so, after 1.4 million votes in the legislative elections and having was ahead in 60 chambers in the May elections, and after André Ventura aimed for victory in 30 chambers, this result has a bittersweet taste.
And three notes for the political future:
1. Luis Montenegro it has a very slim relative majority in Parliament and these local authorities could be, if its party were penalized, a moment of increased difficulty for the PSD. Instead, Montenegro gains political strength and new momentum to continue governing.
2. José Luís Carneirowith this honorable defeat, he also gains new momentum to continue leading the PS and margin for power 2026 and to decide presidential support for Seguro, without it being subject to relevant internal challenges.
3. With yours 137 councilors elected across the country (more than the CDU’s 93 despite having won much fewer chambers), the He arrives will have the opportunity to have real autarchic power in many places, directly or indirectly enabling the governance of presidents elected by other parties. We are a long way from the time when no one wanted to talk to Chega and the red lines are also getting blurred. Montenegro himself signaled this Sunday that local agreements between the PSD and Chega in chambers can happen, when necessary for local governance.
- Follow the results of the 2025 Local Elections
