What impact could the Gaza ceasefire have on war crimes prosecutions against Israel?

The 20-point ceasefire plan calls on Palestinians to stop the “legal war” against Israel and offers amnesty to Hamas fighters. Now that the fighting has eased, will allegations of Israeli genocide be harder to prove in court?

In the future, the Gaza Strip will be governed by a technocratic government — at least that’s what the US-backed ceasefire plan says, which prompted a pause after two years of fighting in the coastal enclave.

The plan further specifies that the Palestinian Authority, which controls the occupied West Bank, will not be able to participate in this government until it is reformed “as outlined in several proposals, including President Trump’s 2020 peace plan.”

In the 2020 plan, the US said it would only recognize a Palestinian state if it ceased to “judicial war against the State of Israel“.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also spoke about this in Washington during his visit last month.

A “genuine” reform of the Palestinian Authority should mean “the end of the legal war against Israel in the ICC and the ICJ”, said Netanyahu, referring to the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice, two courts of international law where cases against Israel are taking place.

Multiple cases in international courts

Both courts are based in the Netherlands. One — the ICC — prosecutes individuals suspected of war crimes and the other, the ICJ, is where countries take action against other countries, usually for violating treaties or conventions.

In late 2023, South Africa appealed to the ICJ and accused Israel of violate the 1948 Genocide Conventionadopted by the United Nations after World War II. A decision on this is not expected before the end of 2027 at the earliest. There is also another case at the ICJ, in which Nicaragua accused Germany of complicity in genocide due to its support for Israel.

However, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and to former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in late 2024. Both have been accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity, although neither has been accused of genocide. The ICC also issued arrest warrants for three senior Hamas leaders, but these were withdrawn after their deaths.

It is likely that the ICC also has other arrest warrants for Israeli politicians that have not yet been made public.

Can the current ceasefire change anything?

If the Palestinian Authority dropped the ICC case — as Netanyahu insisted — would that end the process?

Even before the start of this round of fighting in Gaza, the Palestinian Authority had asked the ICC to investigate the situation in Gaza. These requests to the court are known as referrals.

The Palestinian Authority filed its complaint about Israel with the ICC in 2018, and the ICC has been investigating the situation since 2021. The investigation has been looking at potential violations since 2014. Before the Hamas attack in October 2023, the focus was on expansion of settlements in the West Bank.

In November 2023, other countries — including South Africa, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Chile and Mexico — joined the ICC’s case, claiming that the situation about which the Palestinian Authority had originally notified the court needed to be investigated.

Furthermore, human rights organizations have also joined the ICC case. For example, by the end of September 2025, Reporters Without Borders had filed five complaints against Israel to the ICCclaiming that the Israeli military was deliberately targeting Palestinian journalists.

Earlier this month, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told the press that she and other ministers were also accused of “complicity in genocide” by a Palestinian advocacy group in another case filed with the ICC, because Italy supplied weapons to Israel.

This means that, regardless of what the Palestinian Authority does, the international cases will continue because other plaintiffs are also involved.

Does the ceasefire make genocide harder to prove?

The ceasefire is unlikely to change the way ICC or ICJ cases are handled, legal experts told DW. The fact that Israel has agreed to stop bombing Gaza now does not invalidate previous allegations.

“All possible procedures, whether national or international, will not be affected by current developments,” Kai Ambos, professor of International Criminal Law at the University of Göttingen in Germany, told DW.

The 20-point plan also offers amnesty for Hamas fighters to disarm. More details on this are needed, said the law professor. But even so, any amnesties “would not be binding on national justice systems, such as Germany’s, or the ICC,” Ambos stressed. The agreement would be binding only between the two conflicting parties, he noted.

“The ceasefire should make no difference to prosecution or accountability for past crimes committed by either party,” confirmed Susan Akram, director of the international human rights clinic at Boston University School of Law.

“The test questions will probably be more complicated, as the evidence will likely be erased under the rubble in Gaza, and thousands of Palestinians who witnessed atrocities, including hundreds of journalists, were killed.”

But, he adds, much evidence has already been collected. The UN Commission of Inquiry into the Occupied Palestinian Territories, which concluded in September, has its own database, which will likely be used by the courts.

“There are also lawsuits in several countries against European government authorities for complicity in the genocide in Gaza, as well as requests for the arrest of several Israeli soldiers and commanders for their crimes in Gaza. None of them will be affected by the ceasefire“, said Akram.

Impact on German court cases

This includes cases in Germany. Over the next week or so, a case brought by the European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights (ECCHR) against the German government will be brought before one of the country’s highest courts, the Federal Constitutional Court. There, the ECCH will argue that Germany should not export weapons or weapons components to Israel.

“From a non-legal perspective, it is understandable to question whether the real situation could have any kind of impact on the case,” explains Alexander Schwarz, co-director of the ECCH international crimes program. “But legally, a ceasefire — however long it lasts — does not change the legal basis of our claim.”

On the one hand, the ECCH case looks at hard facts only up to January 2025, Schwarz noted. On the other hand, international rules on arms trade define that Germany must evaluate the recipients of your exports of weapons to check whether there is any danger of German weapons being used in war crimes.

In August, Germany partially suspended approval of new arms exports to Israel. But since the ceasefire was declared, some German politicians have said that these restrictions should be lifted.

“After two years of systematic violations of humanitarian law by Israel, the risk [de as armas alemãs serem utilizadas em crimes de guerra] obviously still exists. It will take time before Germany can legally export weapons to Israel again,” argued Schwarz.

“War crimes, crimes against humanity and, as the UN Commission of Inquiry suggests, acts of genocide do not disappear simply because the fighting stops. A ceasefire does not nullify accountability. In fact, it opens up space for justice to proceed.”