Forecast for the manufacturing industry drops from 1.9% to 0.7%. Agro and services maintain GDP projection at 2.3% for 2025
The (National Confederation of Industry) maintained the growth projection of 2.3% for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025, but lowered the GDP of the industrial sector to 1.6%. Here is the report (PDF – 2 MB)
The overall GDP estimate, therefore, is supported by the good performance expected for agribusiness and the services sector. The outlook for the industry was revised downwards for the 2nd consecutive time.
The result of the industrial sector is mainly impacted by the strong slowdown in the manufacturing industry. The expected increase for this segment fell from 1.9% at the beginning of the year to the current 0.7%. The construction industry also had its projection reduced, from 2.2% to 1.9%.
According to the director of Economics at CNI, Mário Sérgio Telles, 3 factors explain the adverse scenario for the manufacturing industry: the decrease in demand for industrial goods; the significant increase in imports; and the recent additional tariffs imposed by , the sector’s main trading partner.
The segment’s exports to the USA fell 21.4% in August and September compared to the same period of the previous year.
The drop in the industry’s general projection was only more pronounced due to the performance of the extractive industry, whose growth estimate jumped from 2% to 6.2%, driven by the production of .
Optimism about the economy is maintained by projections of an 8.3% increase in agriculture, benefiting from surprising results in agricultural production, and a 2% increase in services.
The services sector, in turn, is driven by the heated job market and the increase in federal government expenses in the 2nd semester.
Macroeconomic scenario
The “Conjunctural Report for the 3rd quarter” also projects that inflation, measured by the IPCA, should close 2025 at 4.8%, above the target ceiling of 4.5%.
Even with the loss of inflation strength, the CNI sees no signs that the Central Bank will initiate cuts in the Selic rate, which should end the year at 15%, resulting in real interest rates of 10.3%.
This level of interest should negatively impact the granting of credit and investments, which should grow 3%, less than half of the 7.3% recorded in 2024.
Family consumption should be stimulated by the mass of real income from work, with an expected increase of 2.3%.
