With the 50% tariff imposed by the United States on imported Brazilian products, Brazil runs the risk of losing space in the world’s largest coffee consumer market from the next harvests onwards and being replaced by other suppliers.
The warning comes from the executive director of the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), Marcos Matos. “The big fear is losing the largest global market, where the main companies are located. It is a huge loss to lose access to the largest global market to your competitors”, said Matos, in an exclusive interview with Broadcast nas Redes.
READ MORE:
FREE TOOL
XP simulator
Find out in 1 minute how much your money can yield
Faced with the surcharge on Brazilian coffee, other countries, such as Mexico, Honduras and Colombia, began to export greater volumes to the United States.
“It took us a long time to gain first place in the American market. With new crops coming and the prospect of greater harvests in important players, the big risk is that Brazil will be the biggest supplier and then go to the end of the line and lose space in the blends of this large market, when global coffee production increases. The way forward is to resolve this as quickly as possible”, observed Matos.
Brazil, in turn, redirected part of what it stopped selling to the USA to European, Arab and Asian countries, minimizing effects on the sector’s trade balance as it relocated to the world market. From January to September, Brazil exported 29.105 million bags, a drop of 20.5% compared to the nine months of 2024, while the revenue generated jumped 30%, to US$ 11,049 billion.
Continues after advertising
With the application of the tax, the United States went from being the main destination for Brazilian coffee in July, before the surtax came into effect, to the third destination in September, losing its position as the largest importer of coffee from Brazil to Germany. According to Cecafé, the impacts on coffee exporters are “incalculable”.
“There is a huge loss with the cost of postponing contracts and suspending and canceling contracts, so we have no other strategy than the total exemption for Brazilian coffees. If we don’t resolve this as quickly as possible, in addition to exporters, the impacts will reach producers”, pointed out the CEO of Cecafé.
Council data points to a 52.8% drop in grain shipments to the North American market in September, acquiring 332,831 bags. Last year, Brazilian coffee exports to the USA totaled 8.1 million bags and US$2 billion, 16% of everything the country exported.
READ ALSO:
“The 40% increase in the international price of coffee added to the 50% tariff on Brazilian beans makes shipments unfeasible”, he pointed out. Brazil accounts for 34% of all coffee consumed in the United States. “76% of Americans consume coffee daily. These are two irreplaceable countries in the coffee trade”, pointed out the executive director of Cecafé.
The export sector defends that coffee be included in the list of exceptions to tariffs. The signals from importers are that the product is item number 1 on the list, according to Matos, for potential new exceptions.
Continues after advertising
The opening of dialogue between countries, which began with the conversation between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and US President Donald Trump, and the Brazilian diplomatic mission to the American government, can contribute to this movement, according to Matos.
“Perhaps a general suspension of the tariff or an expansion of the list is feasible. The important thing is to turn the page on tariffs”, defended the CEO of Cecafé.
The inflationary impact of the increase in coffee prices, which recorded the biggest increase in American retail prices since 1997 in August, nine times higher than the average, as well as the effects already felt by consumers and the end of stock in the local industry also influence the convincing of authorities and the pressure from public opinion to exempt coffee, assesses Cecafé.
Continues after advertising
In parallel, the sector is also seeking market diversification. For Matos, movements to preserve consolidated markets, such as the United States and Europe, and the opening of new destinations are distinct agendas that should not overlap.
China and Australia stand out among the countries with growing consumption of Brazilian grain.
In this scenario of escalating tariffs, low global stocks and uncertainty regarding the new harvest, grain prices tend to remain high on the international market at least until the end of the year.
Continues after advertising
