The methanol crisis already appears in surveys on sales in the bar and restaurant sector for the month. This is what the Abrasel-Stone Index shows, a monthly report released by Stone in partnership with Abrasel (Brazilian Association of Bars and Restaurants).
Last month’s sales fell 4.9% compared to August and 3.9% compared to the same period of the previous year. September’s drop came after a 2.2% increase in August and 0.4% in July, following a 3.7% drop in June.
For the president of Abrasel, Paulo Solmucci, the sales pace in September started under pressure compared to August due to the celebration of Father’s Day, an important date for the sector’s revenue, and the high inflation rate, which restricted the population’s income.
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Even so, according to the expert, sales of bars and restaurants suffered from the drop in traffic in some establishments caused by fear among consumers about cases of methanol poisoning, which caused deaths and blindness.
For economist and Stone researcher Guilherme Freitas, the September result reflects a more challenging environment for the food away from home sector.
“Although the job market remains at a good level, with a low unemployment rate, the pace of creation of formal jobs has lost strength and family debt remains high. This situation limits the income available for consumption and especially affects non-essential items, such as meals and drinks outside the home. Furthermore, sector-specific inflation remains under pressure, with an accumulated increase in twelve months, which makes the average ticket more expensive and increases the price. Finally, the The recent methanol crisis added a specific factor of uncertainty and may have contributed to the decline observed in the month”, he analyzes.
The country’s official inflation, measured by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), rose 0.48% in September, compared to deflation of 0.11% in August. In the 12 months up to September, the IPCA increased by 5.17%.
The “food away from home” category, which encompasses prices charged by bars and restaurants, recorded a price increase of 8.24% in the last 12 months and 0.11% in September compared to August.
Regional cuts
Of the 24 states covered by the survey, only two showed growth in sales in the bar and restaurant sector in September, in the annual comparison: Maranhão (2.6%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (1%).
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Among the states with negative performance, the biggest drops were observed in Roraima (11.5%), Pará (9.9%), Rio de Janeiro and Santa Catarina (7.6%), Paraíba and Sergipe (7%), Mato Grosso (6.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (6.5%), Rondônia (5.8%), Ceará (4.9%), Bahia (4.2%), Alagoas and Tocantins (4.1%), Pernambuco (3.9%), Espírito Santo (3%), São Paulo (2.7%), Minas Gerais (2.4%), Amazonas (1.6%), Goiás and Paraná (1.1%), Rio Grande do Norte (1%) and Piauí (0.4%).
As for the two biggest drops being recorded in states in the North, Freitas explains that, as it is smaller, the region’s market ends up being more sensitive to variations in income and price.
“In addition, the North was one of the regions most impacted by the rise in input costs and the lower circulation of informal income. These factors, combined with the slowdown in the local economy, help explain the sharper drop”, adds Freitas.
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Resilience of bars and restaurants in São Paulo
São Paulo, which was the center of the methanol crisis, recorded one of the smallest drops in sales among all states, showing the sector’s resilience amid the crisis.
Although it is not possible to conclude that the state was not affected by the crisis, it is possible to point to some aspects that may explain this resilience.
“We see a relatively smaller drop in September in São Paulo due to two main factors. The first is that the São Paulo market is more diversified and with a greater presence of formal and larger establishments, with a relevant weight of meals and delivery, which tends to dilute a shock concentrated in alcoholic beverages. The second factor is an effect of timing: the methanol crisis only gained traction at the end of the month and the first weekend with the crisis already established was in October, so the September reading only captures part of the impact”, he explains.
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Expectations for October
According to Freitas, the effect of the methanol crisis should fully appear in the October reading, especially in the first weeks of the month, when the issue had greater repercussions and generated caution among consumers and establishments.
“However, the impact tends to be punctual and short-lived, as inspection and control measures quickly reestablished public confidence”, he adds.
For the economist, just as in September, in October the sector’s main performance vector will continue to be the macroeconomic scenario, marked by limited disposable income and cost inflation.
