Election in the Netherlands is a test for the reach of the European far right

THE HAGUE (Reuters) – Dutch voters vote this Wednesday in an election in which they will have to choose between continuing the anti-immigration nationalism of Geert Wilders, who overthrew the conservative coalition that was in power after two conflictive years, or a return to the center.

With nationalist parties leading polls in the United Kingdom, France and Germany, the Dutch legislative election is a test of whether the far right can still expand its reach or has already reached its peak in some parts of Europe.

Opinion polls show Wilders’ once-sizable Freedom Party (PVV) lead has crumbled, with rivals from the dominant right and left virtually tied with US President Donald Trump’s admirer.

“My message to everyone is that if we run on positive platforms (…) it is possible to defeat the populists and work together with the middle and centrist parties to get real results,” said Rob Jetten, 38-year-old leader of the centrist D66 party, after voting.

Mainstream parties, including the center-right Christian Democrats and VVD, and D66, which has gained popularity in recent weeks, said they would not enter a coalition with Wilders and his PVV party. That means Wilders probably won’t be prime minister unless he wins by an unexpectedly wide margin.

The first exit poll, which has historically proven accurate, will be released when voting ends at 9 p.m.

ELECTIONS EVER MORE UNPREDICTABLE

Dutch elections have become increasingly unpredictable and forming stable coalitions is an arduous task that can take weeks or months.

Opinion polls showed that nearly half the electorate was still undecided days before the vote.

“I think the main question is whether we can defeat populism,” said Christian Democrat leader Henri Bontenbal after voting.

Wilders, one of Europe’s longest-running populist leaders, is known for his anti-Islam stance and lives under constant protection due to death threats. He proposes saving resources by denying all asylum requests – which would violate EU treaties – sending male Ukrainian refugees back to Ukraine and stopping development aid to finance energy and health benefits.

Wilders led his party to a surprising first place in the previous election, in 2023, and formed an all-Conservative coalition, although his partners refused to support him as prime minister. He overthrew the government in June, leading to a snap election, due to its refusal to adopt his hardline anti-refugee measures.

“I’m hoping for a good result. For my party, it’s important that there is a good turnout, that a lot of people vote,” Wilders said on Wednesday.

DIVIDED VOTERS

In Volendam, a fishing town near Amsterdam and Wilders’ stronghold, some local residents said earlier this week they were rooting for Wilders to win.

“We need to be able to take care of ourselves, and that’s why I’m voting for the PVV. Our own people first,” said Jaap Schilder, 40, a fish shop owner and local politician.

Wilders’ PVV has seen some of its support siphoned off by the Christian Democrats, whose new leader, Bontenbal, is campaigning on a promise of government stability and traditional values.

Analysts say the dwindling support for Wilders reflects voters’ frustration with chaotic infighting in the last coalition. His effusive praise for Trump’s leadership and the US president’s perceived willingness to test the limits of American democracy also upsets some voters.

After voting at The Hague City Hall, 21-year-old Janne van Holland said: “I voted for D66 because for me the climate, but also education, are important.”