With the scrutiny of the elections facing the final stretch, D66, a centrist, progressive and pro-European formation that leads by just over 15,000 votes over the Party for Freedom (PVV) of the ultra leader Geert Wilders. With these results, it is very unlikely that the extreme right will be able to successfully negotiate the formation of the next Executive. Wilders’ party has suffered a big upset at the polls, going from 37 to 26 seats in Parliament, the same as D66.
Given that no party with the possibility of governing wants to work with Wilders, it will foreseeably be Rob Jetten, 38 years old and leader of D66, who will have the opportunity to lead the process and try to achieve what he promised during the campaign: return the country to the path of stability after . The closeness of the result, however, has forced the postponement until next Tuesday of the meeting of party leaders from which the name of an explorer should emerge to test the different sensitivities and preferences when putting together a coalition. The appointment was expected to take place tomorrow.
Even if the tie in seats remains, which is the central scenario at this moment, the final stretch of the scrutiny seems to grant a certain advantage to D66: there are still a handful of votes to be counted in Amsterdam, the largest city in the country and with a clearly progressive tendency, as well as those from and those residing abroad, traditionally favorable to moderate forces and unfavorable to the ultras.
If, on the other hand, Wilders (62 years old) were the winner by a narrow margin, the result would have an important symbolic effect for this politician, a professional agitator who focuses his speech on the rejection of immigration and asylum. He could say, with the figures in hand, that his party is the winner and that, therefore, it is his responsibility to lead the search for a new coalition. This approach, however, forgets that the PVV loses 11 seats in a Parliament of 150 and tremendously fragmented, with fifteen parties represented. A defeat that, added to the refusal of his potential partners, condemns the opposition to the far-right, one of the pioneers of the European scene, with almost three decades of political career behind him and who “plans to continue until he is 80 years old.”
However, the negotiations for the formation of the new Dutch Government are going to be anything but easy. The initial trial between the parties and the subsequent open negotiations can last for months, as has already happened in the last elections with the polls. Jetten, who was Minister for Climate and Energy Policy between 2022 and 2024 – during the last Conservative Executive – has already asked the parties to get to work “instead of thinking only about their own voters.”
With the current results, and Wilders more than likely out of combat, a possible coalition could bring together D66, the alliance between environmentalists and social democrats GroenLinks-PvdA, the Christian democracy of the CDA and the VVD. According to the public television counting application, they would obtain 86 seats, 10 above the parliamentary majority, established at 76.
Although it could still take several days before the final result of one of the closest elections in the history of the Netherlands is known, Jetten wants to get going as soon as possible after two years of political stagnation due to the burden of disagreements between the right and the extreme right. “The positive forces have triumphed,” he wrote last morning, with the scrutiny still in its early stages. “I want to work for all the Dutch, because this is everyone’s country.”
Reaching a majority coalition has never been quick in the Netherlands, but Jetten hopes to achieve “a stable Cabinet as soon as possible.” Wilders, meanwhile, is bothered by having to face the rest of the parties next Tuesday, even though a coalition with the PVV seems impossible in advance. The ultra leader argues that “the norm is that the largest party starts” regardless of the possibilities it has. It is also not at all clear that his party will end up being the most voted force: the preliminary result suggests that this will not be the case.
