The rows of yellow concrete blocks that the Israeli army “plants” in Beit Lahia and Khan Yunis are the new boundary between life and death for the Palestinians of the Strip.
The concrete markers are placed about 300 meters in front of the yellow line provided for by the ceasefire agreement, further limiting the narrow strip of land left to the Palestinians after the withdrawal of the Israeli army.
It is assumed that the creation of this new “security zone” will prevent its attacks, such as the one that claimed the life of an Israeli soldier and provoked fierce retaliation in the middle of last week with shelling that killed more than 100 Palestinians in one day, among them dozens of children.
“To Comply”
The government’s disproportionate response Netanyahu was deemed absolutely justified by the president trump, who stressed that he will not allow the ceasefire to be undermined. “Hamas is a small piece of peace in the Middle East. They must comply. If they behave well, they will be happy. If they do not behave well, they will be exterminated” Trump said.
But the situation is not as simple as the American president presents it. Since last Thursday evening, Israel’s artillery and air force have been bombarding eastern Khan Younis again in order to neutralize “cores of terrorists who remained behind the yellow line”, hinting that there are still tunnels leading to the rear. In fact, the double yellow line is evolving into a border that reflects the new state of affairs, a truce without peace.
Critical issues
The ambiguities of the agreement imposed by Trump (through three different texts not all of which bear the signatures of Israel and Hamas) leave room for interpretation on a number of critical issues. From the time frames for the delivery of the bodies of the 11 Israeli hostages sought by the Islamic organization under the ruins, to the conditions for the transfer of humanitarian aid to the civilian Palestinian population. According to reports, Israel proposed to distribute humanitarian aid along the yellow line, but was met with refusal by the US and its Arab allies. Everyone recognizes that the situation will worsen with the arrival of winter, but each side is trying to take advantage of the situation to create achievements on the ground.
Dominant power
“Hamas suffered heavy losses, but remains the dominant force in Gaza” he told “Vima” o Michael Milsteinone of the leading Israeli analysts on the Palestinian, noting that 85%-90% of the commanders and members of the Izzedin al-Qassam military wing have been killed, most of the arsenal has been used or destroyed, but the organization has managed to survive due to its ideology and adaptability to new conditions.
“On October 7, 2023, they had 24 battalions. The Israeli army destroyed nearly 22 and killed about 25,000 Hamas members, but those who survived continued to operate in platoons and cores. They also recruited many thousands of new members. Today they have 25,000-27,000 people in the military wing and tens of thousands more in politics” added Professor Milstein, who, in addition to his academic career as head of the Palestinian studies department at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, has served as the head of Palestinian Affairs at the military counterintelligence (AMAN) and is a colonel in the
The illusion
“Compared to the other organizations in Gaza, there is no one that can compete with them. Islamic Jihad and Fatah are too small and too weak” Professor Milstein estimates.
“With the start of the ceasefire, Hamas crushed the so-called militias, factions, gangs – which had been strengthened during the war, some with the help of Israel – such as the Dugmoos faction in Gaza, Abu Shabab in Rafah, Al Mazda in Khan Younis. Unfortunately, many in Israel were under the illusion that factions and gangs could be an alternative to Hamas, unite and defeat it. I was against this idea from the beginning. The outcome was as expected”.
The script
There is no vacuum in decision-making, even though Hamas has lost many of its leaders, Milstein believes. Gaza is headed by two of the most important leaders of the military wing, Mr Izzedin Haddad and the Raed Saeedwho also decide on the control of humanitarian aid, the reconstruction of civil protection and relief services.
“Consequently there can be no talk of an alternative to Hamas, we have to understand that Hamas is not going anywhere. He knows he cannot return to the situation before October 7, but he believes he has the power to control Gaza in the coming months and years.”.
So what would be the best case scenario for Israel? “I always say there is no better script, but less bad script” answered the Israeli analyst, who sees the “Lebanonization” of Gaza on the horizon.
Like in Lebanon
“Hamas has announced that it will accept a Palestinian technocratic government, but it wants to become like Hezbollah, that is, to have an official government like in Lebanon, but in the background to remain the most powerful player in Gaza. We must ensure that on the border with Sinai there will be some international force through which the Americans will supervise and control everything and that Israel will be able to attack whenever it detects a violation. Just like in Lebanon since the end of 2024, where there is a cease-fire agreement but Israel is allowed to attack Hezbollah almost daily.”.
