The new edition of the Historical Map of Armed Groups in the Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro, released this Wednesday (4), presents an updated portrait of the territorial reorganization of crime in the metropolis.
The survey, produced by GENI/UFF (Study Group on New Illegalisms of the Universidade Federal Fluminense) in partnership with the Fogo Cruzado Institute, estimates that about 4 million people livedin 2024, in areas — approximately one third of the metropolitan population.
The researchers gathered anonymous complaints, public records and georeferenced information to compose a historical series that covers 18 years. According to the study, the area dominated by armed groups has grown by more than 130% since 2007while . The update points out that armed rule has not only expanded, but is distributed unevenly across the city, reflecting social, economic and institutional dynamics.
The report differentiates between two forms of action: control, when there is systematic extraction of resources, imposition of norms and actual or potential use of force; and influence, when these elements appear partially or intermittently.
Em 2024, 29.7% of the population lived in areas under direct controland others 5.3% were in areas of influence. This cut allows us to identify regions of consolidated dominance and others where armed power advances in a more diffuse way.
The series reveals two distinct periods. Between 2016 and 2020there was a intense expansion of armed rulecoinciding with the state’s fiscal crisis, the weakening of the UPPs and federal intervention.
As of 2020, the study records a moderate decline, influenced mainly by the loss of territories by militias after operations that reached their leaders and support networks. Despite this, the presence of these groups remains high in territorial extension.
The map shows that the , while the CV (Red Command) It is the group with the largest number of residents under its control. The factions have expanded their population presence, and , in particular, has been growing since 2018. , on the other hand, has been in continuous decline.
The study also identifies two main expansion dynamics: colonization, which takes place in areas that have not yet been dominated, especially in areas with recent urbanization; and conquest, when one group is replaced by another in densely populated territories. To the militias tend to advance through colonizationdriven by formal and informal urban markets, while factions expand mainly through direct disputes.
The portrait varies depending on the region. In East Fluminense, the domain is mostly owned by Comando Vermelho. Baixada Fluminense presents a strong dispute, with simultaneous growth of militias and factions. In the municipality of Rio, 42.4% of the population lives under the control or influence of armed groups, with a predominance of militias in the West zone and a greater presence of factions in the South, Center and part of the North zone.
The data also relates to social markers. In controlled areas, the average per capita income is significantly lower than in free regions, both in the capital and in the metropolis. The proportion of non-white residents is also higher in dominated areas, indicating overlap between socioeconomic, racial and territorial inequality.
The 2025 edition of the map reinforces that the armed dominance is integrated into urban dynamics and monitors variations in the functioning of institutions and local markets. For researchers, understanding this structure requires looking not only at public security actions, but at policies that involve urbanization, reducing inequalities and strengthening state services.
A CNN Brazil contacted the government of Rio de Janeiro about the situation and is awaiting feedback. The space remains open.
