Maduro’s opponent may come out of hiding to receive the Nobel Prize – but there are risks

Sleepy Oslo is preparing for an unprecedented impact since Barack Obama’s surprise appearance to receive his Nobel Peace Prize. More than 15 years later, Donald Trump’s most coveted trophy was awarded to someone who lived in seclusion – and who may reappear to receive it.

The big question is whether the leader of the Venezuelan opposition, María Corina Machado, will face the dangerous trip to the Norwegian capital to receive the medal and prize money in person, and whether she will be able to return safely afterwards. But that’s not the only geopolitical upheaval the small nation’s Nobel Committee is trying to deal with.

The surprise presence of controversial Argentine president Javier Milei also comes into play. The perspective of the Argentinian anarcho-capitalist, fervent supporter of MAGA and armed with a chainsaw, in the presence of the Venezuelan prisoner who leads the resistance to Nicolás Maduro is an explosive combination.

It’s a scenario this quiet corner of the Nordic countries is trying hard to prepare for, both from a security and diplomatic perspective. With a US Navy fleet stationed in the Caribbean and President Trump threatening to extend attacks on suspected drug traffickers from sea to land, tensions are rising across the region regarding any attempt to overthrow Maduro.

For Machado, who mobilized millions of people to vote for a replacement candidate in last year’s elections, this puts the spotlight more than ever on his campaign for a transition to democracy. However, if she leaves her secret hideaway to receive the award in Oslo on December 10 — the most important meeting point in life for her opposition movement — there is no guarantee that Maduro will let her return.

“This is a do-or-die operation for Machado,” said Geoff Ramsey, a Venezuela expert and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

“If she manages to leave and return, she will appear untouchable, which could breathe new life into an opposition that is much weaker inside Venezuela than abroad,” he said. “But if that fails and she remains in exile, Machado risks condemning herself to irrelevance.”

Although the consequences may not be so serious for the Norwegian hosts, the next few days promise to be embarrassing.

The Norwegian government has already had its run-ins with the US this year, over investment decisions made by its $2.1 trillion sovereign wealth fund, which were denounced by the MAGA movement, and the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to someone other than Trump. None of the decisions were the government’s responsibility, but authorities in Oslo recognize that they are subject to criticism anyway.

Norway, known primarily in peace mediation circles for its efforts in the Oslo Accords between Israel and the Palestinians in 1993, has been an active mediator between the Venezuelan opposition and the Maduro regime. Although the process is now at a standstill, the Nobel Committee’s decision to recognize Machado likely means the end of that initiative, said Benedicte Bull, a Latin America expert at the University of Oslo’s Center for Global Sustainability.

Furthermore, there are concerns that the Nobel Peace Prize award ceremonies could coincide with an ongoing armed conflict, given the US military presence, and trigger undesirable consequences both during the event and in its aftermath. Norway’s Foreign Ministry this week joined other European governments in issuing a warning against all travel to Venezuela.

What makes the situation even more uncomfortable for some in Norway is that Machado, who thanked Trump in his response to the awards ceremony, spoke out in favor of the use of US force as a necessary means to remove Maduro from power.

This has fueled rumors of a boycott in some quarters, amid fears that what is intended to be a celebration of peace risks becoming a platform for voices supporting military action in the laureate’s country. Bjørnar Moxnes, from Norway’s far-left Red Party, reacted to the announcement of Machado’s Nobel Prize in October, publishing that it was “almost impossible to find a candidate closer to Donald Trump” and that making her a laureate was a “bad idea”.

“Norway’s approach to building peace and democracy has always been based on international law,” said Bull. And although Maduro has regularly violated international statutes, “the fact that Machado refuses to condemn extrajudicial executions and that his strategy now appears to be that all means are valid to overthrow the illegal regime is exactly the opposite of Norway’s approach,” he said.

Norway is working under the assumption that Machado will attend the awards ceremony, but there are concerns about who she might bring in her delegation if the event turns into an unofficial right-wing summit, according to a person familiar with the government’s thinking. Others are perplexed by the events.

Presidents Daniel Noboa, from Ecuador, and José Raúl Mulino, from Panama, have already confirmed their presence, as has the Republican congresswoman from Florida, María Elvira Salazar, while the leaders of Guatemala and Paraguay have also confirmed their presence.

They are seen as possible candidates. Noboa, who attended Trump’s inauguration in January, has taken a draconian approach to drug cartels, while anti-immigration sentiment propelled Mulino to power last year on a platform of closing the Darién, his country’s notoriously dangerous jungle passage.

There is also speculation that El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, a close Trump ally who is receiving planeloads of U.S. deportees to house in Salvadoran prisons, may attend.

Milei has not yet confirmed her presence, but congratulated Machado on social media, saying that she inspires “the fight against the narco-dictatorship in Venezuela”.

This type of speech echoes Trump’s claims that Maduro is the head of a drug cartel and his justification for using the U.S. military to blow up what the government alleges were drug trafficking boats and kill the occupants — deaths that Machado blames on Maduro.

“He, and the rest of the drug cartels in power in Venezuela, should stop these activities to prevent more deaths,” Machado said in an interview with Bloomberg’s Mishal Husain, released on October 31.

“We are facing a narco-terrorist structure that has transformed Venezuelan territory, Venezuelan resources and Venezuelan institutions into the activities of a criminal cartel,” said Machado. “I believe that the escalation that has occurred is the only way to force Maduro to understand that it is time to leave.”

Norwegian broadcaster NRK published a video interview with Machado on Tuesday night, in which she said she was “doing everything” to go to Oslo and that she would “return” to Venezuela.

If recent history is any indication, Machado could indeed be allowed to return to the country if she travels to Norway — and then be left to languish, or “dry out,” just as the Chavista government did to its predecessor, former opposition leader Juan Guaidó.

In March 2019, Guaidó — then recognized by the U.S. and dozens of other countries as Venezuela’s interim president — defied a travel ban to attend a concert on the Colombian side of the border in support of humanitarian relief efforts, before embarking on a regional tour. Authorities eventually allowed him to return, but after failing to gain support from the military or fulfill his promise to depose Maduro quickly, his popularity began to decline. The government refrained from issuing an arrest warrant until he fled into exile in 2023.

Some polls suggest a similar trajectory, with signs that Machado’s popularity has also begun to decline as she operates largely behind the scenes.

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