Still without knowing their opponents in the group stage of the 2026 World Cup, nor their possible rivals in the knockout stages, the map of expectations is already taking shape in the betting houses. Spain, England, France, Brazil and Argentina appear, in this order, as the favorites for the title, according to Brazilian bookmakers.
The path for each team will begin to be traced this Friday (5), starting at 2pm (Brasília time), when FIFA draws the World Cup keys.
World champion in 2010, in South Africa, Spain is experiencing one of its most luminous moments since its “golden era”. In the 2024 Euro Cup, Luis de la Fuente’s team lifted the cup with a practically flawless campaign. There were six wins in seven games in normal time, only needing extra time against hosts Germany, in the quarterfinals. The 15 goals scored, four more than any other team in the tournament, reinforced the return of dominant and protagonist football.
Undefeated for 31 official matches (25 wins and six draws, not counting penalty shootouts), Spain has already surpassed the historic sequence between 2010 and 2013, when it went 30 games without defeat amid the World Cup and European Championships. The scenario helps explain favoritism. On platforms operating in Brazil, the Spanish title pays between 5.4 (Casa de Apostas) and 6 (Betano and Superbet). In simple numbers: R$100 bet today can turn into up to R$600.
Finalist of the last Eurocup and world champion in 1966, England follows close behind, with odds between 7 (Sportingbet and Bet365) and 8 (Betano). The recent consistency, added to the crop of talent in the new English generation, keeps Thomas Tuchel’s team at the top of the projections.
France also appears on the favorites podium, two-time world champion (1998 and 2018) and runner-up in 2022. Odds range from 7.5 (Sportingbet) to 8 (Bet365 and Superbet), supported by a squad that remains among the strongest on the planet, even after partial renewal post-Qatar.
“These odds are the result of specialized analyses, which consider not only performance in competitions, but the atmosphere of the entire season — recent clashes, history, adversity and even the location of the match”, explains Hans Schleier, COO of Casa de Apostas.
Brazil, in turn, left behind the almost automatic favoritism it carried for decades. Fifth in the Qualifiers, he has experienced turbulence since the World Cup in Qatar, with changes in command and unexpected setbacks. Even under Carlo Ancelotti, the team is still trying to find stability after surprising defeats to Bolivia and Japan and frustrating draws against Ecuador and Tunisia. Today, it appears as the fourth force, with multipliers between 8 (Betano) and 9 (Bet365 and Superbet).
Even though the current champion and leader of the Qualifiers, Argentina appears right behind. With Messi likely to say goodbye to the World Cup, Lionel Scaloni’s team is rated between 9 (Sportingbet) and 11 (Betano), a reflection of the uncertainties regarding the squad’s oxygenation and post-title adaptation.
Zebras pay almost impossible jackpots
Even for those who like to aim for big upsets, the new format with 48 teams — spread across the United States, Mexico and Canada — does not change the consensus: no matter how democratic the World Cup is, it is unlikely that countries with no influence in world football will be able to get closer to the cup.
Therefore, the prices of emerging teams border on symbolic. Bonds from nations like Suriname or Haiti, classified for the first time, yield multipliers of around 3,001.00. It’s the type of bet that offers stratospheric returns, but which reflects much more the distance of these teams from the top of global football than any real possibility of surprise.
According to a report cited by Bloomberg, the amount bet globally on the 2022 World Cup in Qatar would have reached US$35 billion (R$185 billion), a 65% jump compared to the 2018 edition in Russia.
