NATO’s ability to operate with drones in the Arctic is far from equal to the strategic challenge posed by Russia and China. That is the main conclusion of a new report from the Center for European Policy Analysis, which warns of a significant delay by Western allies in the development, acquisition and integration of unmanned systems prepared for one of the most extreme environments on the planet.
The study argues that, as Russia and China accelerate their investments and expand their presence in the Arctic, NATO countries remain trapped in slow, fragmented and excessively conservative processes. The result is a growing gap in surveillance, deterrence and operational capability in an increasingly militarily, economically and geopolitically relevant region.
The report, signed by researcher Federico Borsari and retired US general Gordon “Skip” Davis, identifies structural deficiencies in infrastructure, problems in the orientation of investment and serious obstacles in procurement systems. According to the authors, most allies prioritize drones designed for temperate climates and only subsequently try to adapt them to Arctic conditions, which limits the number of truly certified and operational platforms in the region.
Russia and China take the lead
The contrast with the strategies of Moscow and Beijing is stark. The study highlights that both countries are systematically investing in unmanned capabilities and associated defensive systems, while strengthening their military and technological footprint in the Arctic. In the Russian case, the experience accumulated in the Ukrainian war has accelerated the development of drones and robotic systems in all domains, with the aim of compensating for structural weaknesses and strengthening its conventional forces.
According to data cited in the report, Russian annual production of drones now exceeds 1.5 million units, supported by partners such as China and Iran. Norwegian intelligence forecasts even point to exponential growth of these systems in the coming years. As an example of this bet, The Russian Navy has recently created a new drone control center in Kamchatka, intended to oversee the development of platforms for maritime patrols and anti-submarine warfare.
China, for its part, has made the Arctic a technological priority. The report highlights its investment in remote sensing, polar shipping, unmanned systems and communication networks adapted to extreme latitudes. This week, Chinese state media reported the successful test of the Jiutian, a drone capable of launching up to a hundred smaller vehicles in mid-flight, a development that illustrates Beijing’s ambitious approach.
The Canadian case and the northern gap
The study dedicates special attention to the situation in Canadaone of the key allies in the Arctic. Currently, the country does not have drones capable of regularly patrolling its vast northern territory. The Canadian Air Force is in the process of acquiring eleven MQ-9B Reapersbut the first deliveries are not expected until 2028 and the entire fleet would not be operational before 2033.
The schedule has been delayed due to the need to modify the devices to operate at extreme latitudes and ensure their operation during the harsh Canadian winters. Furthermore, other projects, How to buy a Hermes 900 Starliner drone for Arctic surveillance, remain surrounded by uncertainty about their effective deployment.
The report warns that this lack of capabilities is worsened by the aging of NORAD’s radar networks, whose modernization process could last up to two decades. During that period, Arctic access to North America would remain exposed to new threats in a context of unprecedented strategic competition.
No common strategy for the Arctic
Although the study avoids pointing out a specific ally, underlines that the recent accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO It opens an opportunity to articulate a more coherent northern front. However, the authors insist that important gaps persist between current inventories Alliance drone and the specific demands of Arctic operations.
Few systems are adequately conditioned for extreme cold, and key solutions such as low temperature resistant batteries, advanced thermal management systems or prepositioning of spare parts in northern bases. At a more strategic level, the diagnosis is even more forceful: NATO lacks a formal strategy for the Arctic.
According to CEPA, this absence of a specific framework risks dispersing resources and weakening cooperation between allies in a region where Russia and China advance with a clear and sustained vision. In a scenario of growing competition, the report concludes, This strategic lack of definition can become a critical vulnerability.
