Concentration on a single candidate x pulverization and popularity x rejection are the two main dilemmas to be resolved
More resigned to the possibility of the senator (PL-RJ) running for Planalto as the main opponent of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), the opposition will have to make important choices in the first months of the election year.
In addition to slamming the hammer on the bloc’s main representative, party leaders must decide whether to bet on joining forces behind a single name from the beginning or whether they will have several names on the ballot (and in debates) to undermine Lula.
The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), is still the favorite of several chiefs from the Centrão and the right, as well as an important part of the Brazilian business community. The former minister, however, will not be a candidate if Flávio goes to the polls. As he is considered one of the strongest names and governs the state with the highest GDP in the country, where he is a strong favorite for re-election, Tarcísio will only try for Planalto with the approval and support of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
For now, the reserve captain is convinced about nominating his eldest son and has managed to convince right-wing leaders that the senator is the best option.
In this case, the Palácio dos Bandeirantes would be practically assured for the bloc, and Tarcísio would be one of Flávio’s main platforms.
Other right-wing governors, however, tend to maintain their candidacies. The governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (União), the second Atlas pollster, said publicly that he maintains his pre-candidacy for Planalto. Ratinho Jr. (PSD), from Paraná, and Romeu Zema (Novo), from Minas Gerais, are also considering running for President.
As a bloc, the right and Centrão need to decide which strategy would be more effective: concentrating support on a single candidate from the beginning, immediately strengthening a name to rival Lula, or pulverizing the candidacies and suffocating the PT member in debates and negative propaganda against the government.
With the endorsement of Faria Lima and seen as more moderate, Tarcísio would have more power to make others unite in favor of his candidacy, since several names on the right already want to detach themselves from Bolsonarism which, despite being popular, is widely rejected and is considered radical by a large part of the electorate and decision makers.
The personal objectives of potential candidates must also be taken into account: for party leaders, Ratinho, Caiado and Zema, even with very little chance against Flávio and Lula in 2026, could come out ahead in the race for 2030 in the event of the PT victory, since they would become better known nationally during the campaign.
The scenario is the opposite for Tarcísio: right-wing leaders believe that the governor of SP would be ahead in 2030 if he does not run for Planalto this year, since he is better known nationally than his peers, in addition to being seen by part of the electorate as the “natural heir” of Bolsonarism. The consolidation of well-evaluated work in SP also
High popularity x low rejection: the right-wing dilemma
Despite gaining strength in the last week, Flávio Bolsonaro’s pre-candidacy, previously seen as a bluff, is still far from unanimous. At the center of the debate between Bolsonaro’s son’s defenders and Tarcísio’s supporters are the polls.
With sharp growth in recent surveys, the senator has the strength of his father’s name and more radical speech. For critics, however, it has a lower “ceiling”, as, along with popularity, it also entails rejection of the reserve captain, defeated in 2022 despite being in charge of the public sector.
In the case of Tarcísio, the numbers show the opposite. He comes from a lower “floor” than Flávio, but, due to much lower rejection, he can reach a higher peak than the senator. Tarcísio’s supporters also highlight the support of the business community and the more pragmatic and moderate speech for attracting both centrist voters and those disillusioned with the recent polarization.
The “passion” factor, however, weighs against the governor. According to a PL leader interviewed by the report, only the Bolsonaro family has the power to “spontaneously mobilize” conservative voters, especially on the internet. According to this analysis, right-wing voters worked to convert more votes for Flávio than for any other candidate.
