Peak should arrive at the end of the year. Influenza A (H3N2) strain dominates by “resisting” the vaccine. In the first 15 days of the month there were around 600 more deaths than expected for this time of year.
The number of flu cases continues to rise and the peak of the epidemic is expected to be reached around New Year’s Eve, largely thanks to the influenza A strain described as more aggressive.
According to the most recent report from the National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge, 1269 positive cases for the flu virus in the last week. The growth trajectory is putting pressure on healthcare services such as intensive care.
Signs of severity are visible in hospitalizations. In the week under analysis alone, 16 patients required intensive care. Since the beginning of flu activity, according to data cited by the report, there have been 46 patients in intensive care units, while admissions for severe acute respiratory infections reached 97 in the last week.
In the accumulated balance of the season, there are 38 thousand cases of respiratory infections, of which 5587 are from the fluwith a predominance of type A.
The increase in viral circulation coincides with a excess mortality. Daily data from the Directorate-General for Health, relating to the first 15 days of the month, indicate around 600 more deaths compared to expected for this time of year.
The rise in cases is attributed to a mutation in the influenza A(H3N2)not covered by the vaccine, according to authorities.
Even so, the first results of the VEBIS multicenter study suggest that the seasonal vaccines available in the European Union continue to provide protection against A(H3N2) infection, with an efficacy estimated between 52% e 57%.
Recent European evidence goes in the same direction: a modeling study by RespiCompass, from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, concluded that vaccination against flu and COVID-19 significantly reduced hospitalizations among older adults. In a scenario of rapid rise and hospital pressure, the next few days will be decisive in containing the impact of the wave.
Portugal suffered from influenza this month. In the last week of November, the Minister of Health, Ana Paula Martins, warned: “the winter will be very hard”.
