“It was so easy” for Ukraine to go to elections. It just depends on Russia

The country will “quickly study” the possibility of holding presidential elections. If a “miracle” is needed to achieve peace at the moment, the same cannot be said about going to the polls. Marcelo convened the State Council.

Ukraine appears to be closer than ever since the start of the war to going to presidential elections, which could challenge President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s position.

At this moment, neither the specialist Nuno Rogeiro nor José Milhazes, who share space on Guerra Fria, from , view efforts for peace with optimism. Rogeiro admitted this Sunday “he does not see a chance of there being a peace agreement and Milhazes believes that “these negotiations could last a long time and may even never lead to anything”, and that “we are in a real dead end”.

Both admit that it takes a “miracle” to achieve peace. However, the same is not applicable to the holding of presidential elections in Ukraine, long seen as necessary by Europeans, the USA and, in particular, by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who imposes going to the polls in Ukraine as a necessary condition to end the war.

Rogeiro admits that there would be minimum conditions to hold presidential elections in Ukraine without weakening the country in the face of Russian aggression. But it takes Moscow’s will.

“I directly make a proposal to Russian leaders: stop bombing Ukraine during the election period. It was so easy to say that, I don’t understand why it isn’t said.”

Ukraine is under martial law, with elections suspended since the Russian invasion in February 2022. Zelenskyy’s five-year presidential term was supposed to end in May 2024but the ongoing war complicates any potential electoral process, European allies also argue. This state of exception, provided for by the Constitution itself, does not require elections to be held while the country is the target of a foreign military invasion.

Zelenskyy denies “clinging to power”

Zelenskyy, elected in 2019 for a term that would end in April 2024, said about two weeks ago that he was available to call elections if security conditions allowed and legislation was changed to make voting possible under martial law.

The Ukrainian head of state rejected accusations that he was to “grab hold of power”stating that it was a “completely false narrative”, and admitted that, with adequate security guarantees, the elections could be held “within two or three months”.

The statements came after criticism from US President Donald Trump, who defended holding elections in Ukraineclaiming that successive postponements due to the war put democratic principles at risk.

In an interview with Politico, Trump stated that “it is time” for Ukrainians to return to the polls, arguing that the war has been used as an “excuse” to postpone elections, although he acknowledged that Zelenskyy could win again eventual suffrage. In fact, Trump insisted this year that the Ukrainian president “is doing very badly” in the polls, but many of them say the opposite.

Putin’s central demand

Holding elections and removing Zelenskyy has been a central demand of Putin to put an end to the war.

As recently as late November, the Russian president considered and said it was unwise to sign any documents with Zelenskyy’s administration. From Putin’s perspective, Kiev’s leadership lost legitimacy after refusing to hold elections when President Zelenskyy’s term expired.

Kiev has in turn reinforced on several occasions that it cannot hold elections while it is under martial law and defending its territory from Russian aggression.

Ukrainian parliamentary group will evaluate election hypothesis

This Monday, the Ukrainian Parliament created a working group to “study quickly” the possibility of holding presidential elections despite the martial law in force since the Russian invasion that began in February 2022.

The leader of the parliamentary group of the Servant of the People party, David Arakhamia, announced on the social network Telegram that he formed the group “in accordance with a prior agreement”, with the aim of analyzing the legal and operational feasibility of presidential elections during martial law. According to Arakhamia, the discussions will involve members of various parliamentary committees, representatives of all political groups, the electoral commission and civil society organizations linked to electoral matters, and no date has yet been set for the vote.

Marcelo convenes the State Council for January 9 to discuss Ukraine

The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, convened the State Council to January 9 “to analyze the international situation and, in particular, in Ukraine”, reads a note on the Presidency of the Republic portal this Tuesday.

This will be the first meeting of the Council of State, the head of state’s political advisory body, since the early legislative elections on May 18th and will take place during the official campaign period for the presidential elections on January 18th.

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa called this meeting exactly two months before the end of his second term as President of the Republic, which will end on March 9, 2026. The previous meeting of the State Council was held more than eight months ago, on March 12, for the purposes of the Assembly of the Republic, following the disapproval of a motion of confidence presented by the first PSD/CDS-PP Government headed by Luís Montenegro.

In the current legislature, the Assembly of the Republic, after more than six months, has not yet elected the five members it is responsible for appointing to the Council of State.

Under the terms of the Constitution, the councilors elected by parliament, in each legislature, remain in office until those who replace them take office. Thus, Carlos Moedas (PSD), Pedro Nuno Santos and Carlos César (PS) and André Ventura continue to represent parliament – ​​all elected in 2024.

The founder of the PSD and former prime minister, Francisco Pinto Balsemão, who died on October 21, was also part of this body.

Among the members of the State Council appointed by Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is Luís Marques Mendes, who is a candidate in the presidential elections on January 18.