Survey is released after Jair Bolsonaro confirmed in a letter that his son will replace him in next year’s elections; other scenarios show PT against Tarcísio, Michelle and the former president himself
President Luiz Inácio da Silva (PT) appears ahead of the senator (PL-RJ) in the dispute for the Presidency of the Republic in 2026, according to a survey by Paraná Pesquisas. In the scenario in which Flávio replaces his father, Lula has 37.6% of voting intentions, against 27.8% for the senator — a difference of 9.8 percentage points. The survey was carried out between December 18th and 22nd. 2,038 Brazilian voters were interviewed in all States and the Federal District. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points.
This is the first survey released after the letter written by Jair Bolsonaro in which the former president officially confirms Flávio as his replacement in the race for Palácio do Planalto. The document, titled Letter to Brazilianswas read by the senator himself this week, in front of the hospital where Bolsonaro underwent a new surgical procedure.
In the letter, the former president states that his son’s nomination seeks to preserve the representation of his electorate in the face of what he calls a “scenario of injustice” and tries to unify the conservative base around a single name.
Right-wing reorganization
In addition to the PL senator, the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Junior (PSD), with 9.0%, and the former minister Ciro Gomes (PSDB), with 7.9%, and Romeu Zema, with 3.1% (Novo), with 3.1%, appear in the same scenario. Romeu Zema (Novo), Tereza Cristina (PP) and Renan Santos (Missão) are also listed, both with percentages below 3% (see chart below). White, null and voters who did not know how to answer total 12%.
The research is released amid an internal reorganization of the conservative field. After the announcement of Flávio’s pre-candidacy, Michelle Bolsonaro began to adopt a stance of less public exposure, a move interpreted in the PL as strategic to reduce internal noise and concentrate electoral articulation on the senator’s name. The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), has reinforced his intention to run for re-election.
Tight second round
Lula’s advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro in a possible second round, which was almost ten percentage points in October, fell to just 3.1 points in December. Considering the margin of error, the two candidates are now in a technical draw.
The trajectory of the numbers shows a gradual downward trend for the PT member and constant growth for Flávio. In three months, the senator from Rio de Janeiro advanced 4 percentage points, while the current president retreated 2.6 points.
Other tested scenarios
In other scenarios simulated by Paraná Pesquisas, Lula also appears in the lead:
- Against Jair Bolsonarothe president has 36,9%ante 31,3% of the former president, a smaller advantage, but still outside the margin of a draw. Furthermore, Bolsonaro is currently ineligible and is serving a sentence after being convicted in the coup plot.
- Against Tarcísio de FreitasLula adds 37,8%while the governor of São Paulo appears with 26,2%.
- Against Michelle Bolsonarothe PT member records 37,2%in front of 24,4% of the former first lady.
In all scenarios, candidates such as Ciro Gomes, Ratinho Junior, Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema appear with single-digit percentages, making up the second platoon in the dispute.
Paraná Research (stimulated)
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro
Lula (PT): 37,6%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 27,8%
Ratinho Junior (PSD): 9,0%
Ciro Gomes (PSDB): 7,9%
Romeu Zema (New): 3,1%
Tereza Cristina (PP): 1,9%
Renan Santos (Mission): 0,8%
None / Blank / Null: 6,7%
Don’t know/Didn’t say: 5,3%
Lula x Jair Bolsonaro
Lula (PT): 36,9%
Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 31,3%
Ciro Gomes (PSDB): 6,9%
Ratinho Junior (PSD): 6,5%
Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil): 4,0%
Romeu Zema (New): 1,6%
Tereza Cristina (PP): 1,4%
Renan Santos (PL): 0,6%
None / Blank / Null: 6,0%
Don’t know/Didn’t say: 4,8%
Lula x Tarcísio de Freitas
Lula (PT): 37,8%
Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 26,2%
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 8,7%
Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil): 5,0%
Romeu Zema (New): 3,9%
Tereza Cristina (PP): 2,5%
Renan Santos (PL): 0,8%
None / Blank / Null: 8,9%
Don’t know/Didn’t say: 6,1%
Lula x Michelle Bolsonaro
Lula (PT): 37,2%
Michelle Bolsonaro (PL): 24,4%
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 8,3%
Ratinho Junior (PSD): 8,2%
Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil): 4,9%
Romeu Zema (New): 3,2%
Tereza Cristina (PP): 2,0%
Renan Santos (PL): 0,9%
None / Blank / Null: 5,8%
Don’t know/Didn’t say: 5,1%
Second round: Lula x Flávio
