Kosovo holds early elections this Sunday with a fragmented opposition seeking to oust the nationalist prime minister Albin Kurtiwhile the European Union hopes that the polls will produce a Government willing to advance in normalization talks with Serbia.
After last February’s elections, the former Serbian province spent much of the year in political stalemate, as Kurti’s party, SELF-DETERMINATION (LVV, ‘Self-determination‘), failed to find a coalition partner. LVV emerged from those elections as the strongest party in Parliament, with 48 of the 120 seats, far from the 61 necessary to form an Executive.
Due to a lack of support, it was not until August that the Assembly was able to elect the Speaker of Parliament and his deputies, a necessary step before the process of forming a new government could begin. The president of Kosovo, Vjosa Osmanitwice granted LVV the mandate to form a Government, but faced with the impossibility of finding coalition partners, the president dissolved Parliament in November and called early elections.
The surveys
According to the most recent polls, Kurti’s party remains the favorite for victory, with between 50% and 53% support among decided voters. He is followed by Kosovo Democratic Party (PDK), which could obtain between 16% and 19%; the Democratic Union of Kosovo (LDK), with 15-17%, and the coalition between the Kosovo Future Alliance (AAK) y INITIATIVE (Initiative), with 7-9%.
Furthermore, surveys confirm that the List Serbiathe main political force of the Serbs in Kosovo, will once again win the 10 seats guaranteed by the Constitution for this minority. A total of 24 candidates will participate in the elections, with about two million registered voters both at home and abroad.
Kurti’s first government lasted just four months (February to June 2020), and the second lasted from March 2021 to March 2025. Since then, the former student leader has served as interim prime minister. During the last two years of his mandate, the normalization process with Serbia was completely blocked, while tensions flared in the Serbian-majority northern region of the country.
Tensions with the EU, US and NATO
Kurti also had several confrontations with the EU, the United States and NATOwhich guarantees stability in Kosovo. Tensions escalated when Kurti ordered abolish the Serbian dinar in the Serbian-majority northern areas, imposing euro as the only currency, banned Serbian license plates on cars in northern Kosovo and closed Belgrade-backed institutions such as municipalities, post offices and tax administrations.
Brussels hopes for renewed progress in the reforms linked to the EU and in the normalization of relations with Serbia. In 2023, the EU imposed diplomatic sanctionsfroze funds and suspended Kosovo’s participation in international forums, believing that Kurti was destabilizing the region. In 2013, the governments of Kosovo and Serbia signed the so-called ‘Brussels Agreement‘, which established several key obligations for both parties.
Kosovo had to integrate the Serbian majority municipalities into its institutions and create a Association of Serbian Majority Municipalities with competencies in education, health and safety. Serbia, for its part, accepted eliminate all parallel administrative institutionsand both parties committed to continuing the dialogue facilitated by the EU to achieve full normalization of relations, even without mutual recognition.
Mutual recognition?
However, Kosovo never established the association of municipalities and closed the parallel Serbian institutions instead of letting Belgrade do so, as agreed. After the February elections, the three opposition parties refused to form a coalition with LVV due to Kurti’s political tensions with the EU and the United States.
Furthermore, they criticize the Kurti’s nationalist approach against Serbia, but also for other concerns, such as economic deterioration, freedom of the press and several cases of corruption. While LVV insists that dialogue with Serbia must result in a mutual recognitionthe opposition supports EU-led normalization steps even without immediate formal recognition.
This approach also has the support of the neighbor Albaniawhose prime minister, Eddie Ramahas frequently expressed disagreement with Kurti due to his strained relations with the West. The Albanian-Kosovar analyst Mazllum Baraliu does not expect major changes in the election results, despite LVV’s clear advantage.
In statements to EFE, the expert warns that the country – which declared its unilateral independence of Serbia in 2008 – is heading in the same direction as in the previous elections in February. “There is no serious movement (in the electorate) that could produce a different result. Changes in the numbers of political parties can be very symbolic,” Baraliu said.
