Why Trump is fundamental to Netanyahu’s re-election strategy

ANALYSIS || Visit of the Israeli Prime Minister to Mar-a-Lago is the opening act of his campaign for re-election in the 2026 elections

When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets US President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago this Sunday, the meeting will represent more than a simple diplomatic meeting.

For Netanyahu, it will be the opening act of his re-election campaign in 2026, in which the American president will play a fundamental role.

Officially, elections in Israel are scheduled for October 2026, although this schedule may be brought forward. Two immediate threats loom over Netanyahu’s coalition: the deadline for approval of the State Budget, in March 2026. Either of them could trigger early elections.

Netanyahu’s sixth government – in power for 18 years across different terms as prime minister – has faced extraordinary turmoil, from the 2023 judicial reform that brought hundreds of thousands onto the streets, through the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, that killed more than 1,200 Israelis, to the subsequent war that left Israel diplomatically isolated and deeply divided.

However, Netanyahu resisted. His coalition has survived longer than all Israeli governments of the past six years, giving him time to restore Israel’s regional deterrence while avoiding a substantial investigation into the decision-making process leading up to October 7, 2023.

Opinion surveys since October 2023 have repeatedly shown that his coalition will not reach the majority of 61 seats in the Knesset necessary to govern, oscillating between 49 and 54 seats. His re-election strategy appears to be based on a simple calculation: distance himself as much as possible from the failure of October 7th and count on Trump to help rewrite that narrative at the polls.

“The US president will be fundamental – if not the main factor – in Netanyahu’s re-election strategy,” says Nadav Shtrauchler, a political strategist who previously worked for the prime minister.

The alliance has precedents. During Israel’s tumultuous 2019-2020 election cycles, Likud placed billboards across Israeli streets showing Trump and Netanyahu shaking hands, with the inscription “Netanyahu, on another level”. Trump made symbolic gestures at critical moments in the campaign: he recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights in 2019, presented a previous Palestinian peace plan in 2020 and led the Abraham Accords.

More recently, Trump defended , publicly calling on Israeli President Isaac Herzog during a Knesset speech in October commemorating the ceasefire in Gaza to grant him a pardon. “Hey, I have an idea, Mr. President – ​​why don’t you give him a pardon?” Trump asked, dismissing the corruption charges against Netanyahu as trivial “cigars and champagne” matters.

The episode triggered an aligned Likud campaign that culminated in the one directed by Netanyahu to Herzog. In a video accompanying his petition, Netanyahu referenced Trump’s defense, saying it would “allow both leaders to advance vital interests in a moment of fleeting opportunity.”

Shtrauchler identifies that Knesset speech as “the de facto launch of his electoral campaign, managed by the best political strategist in the world, Donald Trump.”

“Trump will likely reappear on Netanyahu’s campaign posters, as has happened in the past,” says Strauchler. “His presence will loom large over the campaign. But it’s about quality, not quantity.”

In fact, a well-informed Likud source familiar with the planning says that Netanyahu has already discussed the possibility of hosting Trump in Israel during his campaign, on his second visit since returning to the White House.

The Israeli prime minister’s office declined CNN’s request for comment.

The numbers explain why. One on life in Israel showed that approval of US leadership among Israelis was 76%, compared to 40% approval of Israeli government leadership. The , credited to Trump’s mediation and determination, only strengthened the American president’s image in Israel.

Netanyahu’s strategy, according to Israeli analysts, will focus on diplomatic spectacle: expanding relations, normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia and reshaping the Middle East – all in line with Trump’s desire to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, which Jerusalem is actively promoting. Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, an ally of Netanyahu, recently joined US House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson to launch a global parliamentary initiative, urging world leaders to support Trump’s nomination for the 2026 prize.

“The most important thing for Netanyahu is his legacy,” says Shtrauchler. “His message will be that he has achieved a lot, but that his mission is not over – the Iranian threat still exists and there are still peace deals to be made.”

However, Trump’s vision of historic peace in the Middle East has not materialized and still faces significant obstacles. The ceasefire in Gaza is fragile, with Trump pressuring Israel to accelerate Phase 2 – no international force has emerged to govern Gaza, and the prospects of Hamas disarmament appear remote. Arab countries, which were expected to quickly join the Abraham Accords, remain hesitant and normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia is still a long way off.

There are divisions in other regional theaters of operations. In Syria, Trump’s support for the Al-Sharaa regime contrasts with Israel’s determination to maintain a safe zone. In Lebanon, Washington is pushing for diplomacy, while Jerusalem doubts Beirut’s ability to contain Hezbollah without another campaign of military intervention.

Iran remains a flashpoint of tension, with Israel closely monitoring Tehran’s nuclear enrichment and increasingly concerned about its ballistic missile activities. Both leaders hailed the brief “12-day war” as a triumph, but Tehran’s nuclear and missile ambitions have barely diminished. Israeli officials doubt that Trump will rush to authorize another major Israeli military operation against Iran, particularly in the wake of the fallout from Israel’s controversial September attack on Hamas leadership in Doha, Qatar.

In a statement, White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said that “Israel has never had a better friend in its history than President Trump.”

“We continue to work closely with our ally Israel to successfully implement the President’s 20-Point Peace Plan and strengthen regional security in the Middle East,” Kelly said. “As he has repeatedly stated in his first and second terms, the president is committed to ensuring that Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon.”

The most politically tense arena remains Gaza, where Trump is seeking progress in the next phase, while Netanyahu faces resistance from his right-wing coalition to any further withdrawals. Israeli sources suggest that Netanyahu may seek approval for yet another military operation inside the Gaza Strip before agreeing to move forward on the ceasefire – a final show of force to satisfy his partners before making further concessions.

“Netanyahu is not acting in isolation,” notes a former Israeli official. “Jared Kushner and other senior figures close to Trump, as well as his allies in the Gulf and friends in Turkey and Qatar, are increasingly frustrated by Netanyahu’s delays in the Gaza ceasefire plan and fear any maneuver that could compromise broader regional stability.”

Netanyahu’s approach, the same sources indicate, likely involves crafting a comprehensive package of conditional measures: progress in Gaza tied to security guarantees against Iran and Lebanon, accommodation to domestic political timelines and, potentially, support for his campaign for a presidential pardon.

“Netanyahu always explores connections,” says a senior Israeli official. “He trades advances on one front for compensation on another. It seems likely that he will have to hand over Phase 2 to Trump, so the crucial question is what he will get in return – US support for another attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, for example, or support for military action in Lebanon.”

Even if historic breakthroughs fail to materialize, Trump offers something equally valuable: attention. Each tweet, visit or presidential statement will dominate the headlines, steal the spotlight from Netanyahu’s opponents and give Israelis something else to discuss beyond the failure of October 7th.

“I believe their alliance is very strong and based on shared understanding and visions,” highlights Shtrauchler. “There may be disagreements or conflicts, but they understand each other and are able to resolve them. Until now, they have coordinated all the time. Netanyahu postponed many actions until Trump’s electoral victory – and expects to receive the same support in return.”

In previous elections, Trump’s interventions helped Netanyahu avoid defeat but never guaranteed a decisive victory. Between 2019 and 2021, he was unable to form a stable coalition, which ended up triggering five elections in four years.

Trump remains probably the most powerful card in Netanyahu’s political deck – but, as recent history shows, that may not be enough to guarantee him a victory.

CNN’s Donald Judd contributed to this report.