According to international relations specialist Priscila Silveira, in addition to being commercial partners in the energy sector, China and Russia have military power capable of transforming a regional crisis into an international escalation.
International analysts assess that the military intervention of already in the early hours of this Saturday (3), under the justification of combating drug trafficking, it hides geopolitical and economic interests that could attract powers such as China and Russia to the conflict.
According to analyst Priscila Silveira, if the central objective of is control of Venezuelan oil reserves, the likelihood of direct intervention by Caracas’ strategic allies increases significantly. and Russia, in addition to being commercial partners in the energy sector, have military power capable of transforming the regional crisis into an international escalation.
On the other hand, analyst Jesualdo Almeida argues that the justification for combating drugs is “fragile”. He points out that countries with more authoritarian regimes or with a greater history of drug trafficking, such as Honduras and Saudi Arabia, have not suffered similar interventions, suggesting that the action aims to resurrect the “Monroe Doctrine” (America for Americans).
Geopolitical Impacts
Asphyxiation of Allies: The fall of the Maduro regime or control of oil would directly harm Cuba, which depends on Venezuelan supplies.
Invasion History: Recalling cases such as Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, analysts warn of the risk of a “scorched earth” scenario in Venezuela, given that there are still no clear plans for the post-Maduro period.
Internal Reviews: Although the Brazilian government and the Venezuelan opposition do not recognize the legitimacy of the Maduro regime, the American action is seen by experts as a direct violation of national sovereignty.
*With information from Jornal da Manhã
*Report produced with the help of AI
