Atlético de Madrid x Real Madrid prediction: prediction for the Spanish Super Cup

Real Madrid has slight favoritism over Atlético de Madrid, according to bookmakers, for this Thursday’s derby (8), valid for the semi-final of the Spanish Super Cup. The match, which will take place at Favorito Alinma Stadium, in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, will be held at 4pm (Brasília time), broadcast on ESPN and Disney+.

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*All odds in this article are subject to change

Atlético de Madrid x Real Madrid: odds and prediction

Prediction: Real Madrid win

Despite being very balanced, the confrontation tends more towards Real Madrid. Even without one of the main players, the team led by Xabi Alonso has a good recent record and should qualify for the final of the Spanish Super Cup.

Atlético de Madrid x Real Madrid: predictions and betting tips

1. Over 2.5 goals – 1.70 in Betano
2. Both score – yes: 1.62 of Betfair
3. More than 5 cards – 1.80 na Bet365

Over 2.5 goals – odd 1.66

In the last ten games, Atlético de Madrid recorded an average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match. Real Madrid has even higher rates: 2.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. This way, it is possible for the match to have more than 2.5 goals. Another relevant point is that four of Atlético de Madrid’s last five clashes ended with more than 2.5 goals on the scoreboard. For Real Madrid, five of the six most recent away games surpassed the same mark.

Both score – yes – odd 1.62

Atlético de Madrid scored 34 goals, while Real Madrid found the net 21 times. In 26 matches played by Atleti, 17 ended with goals from both sides; Real had this scenario in 13 of the 25 games. Given this attacking power presented by both, the tendency is for a confrontation with chances for both teams to score. Furthermore, in four of the last five meetings between Atlético and Real, both sides have scored.

More than 5 cards – odd 1.80

In the last five direct clashes between the teams, the average number of cards was 4.6. In the most recent game, won 5-2 by Atlético de Madrid in LaLiga, the teams were warned with nine cards in total (five for Real and four for Atleti). Taking into account the decisive nature of this Thursday’s classic, it is likely that the number of cards will be high.

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Atlético de Madrid x Real Madrid: time and where to watch

• Spanish Super Cup – Semifinal
• Data: Thursday, January 8, 2026
• Time: 4pm (Brasília time)
• Local: Alinma Stadium, Jeddah (ARA)
• Transmission: ESPN (pay TV) and Disney+ (streaming)

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Atlético de Madrid: current and latest information

Atlético de Madrid arrives at the appointment with few confirmed absences. Due to physical problems, Clément Lenglet is out of the derby, while Nico González appears to be doubtful for the match.

Thus, the expectation is that coach Diego Simeone will maintain the team’s usual structure, betting on the formation that has already been used.