With the melting of ice opening new sea routes, analysts estimate that Washington seeks to prevent the commercial and military hegemony of Chinese and Russians in the polar region
Controlling all maritime routes to hinder trade is behind the (USA) intention to invade and annex, according to experts in international relations and geopolitics consulted by the Brazil Agency.
The Arctic Ocean connects Asia, Europe and North America and, with climate change, the melting of polar ice caps is expected to reduce shipping prices in this region in the coming decades.
In a document published in 2018, China classified itself as a “quasi-Arctic” country and has worked in cooperation with China to increase its presence in the smallest of the planet’s oceans.
Portuguese Major General Agostinho Costa, a specialist in security and geopolitical issues, explained that the US already controls practically all trade routes and oceans, but that it has a reduced presence in the Arctic.
“[A anexação da Groenlândia] it is a policy of controlling maritime routes with the aim of blocking China. The US controls the Pacific and the Atlantic, now it needs to control the Arctic. They struggle with the idea that, in an ocean as important as the Arctic, they have a residual presence”, explains the soldier, former vice-president of the EuroDefense-Portugal Association.
Satellite observations from NASA (US space agency) indicate that sea ice is falling 13% per decade and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), linked to the United Nations (), estimates that the Arctic could be ice-free between 2050 and 2070.
“With global warming, the Arctic route reduces navigation time between China and Europe”, recalls Portuguese general Agostinho Costa, adding that 80% of global trade takes place via the seas.
Political scientist Ali Ramos, author of studies on Asia, highlighted that the melting of the polar ice caps on the Northern Route should make sea freight between continents cheaper by more than a third. “Russia has more than twice as many NATO bases [Organização do Tratado do Atlântico Norte] in the Arctic and China recently issued a document considering itself a country surrounding the Arctic, probably in collaboration with the Russians. Trump needs Canada and Greenland for deterrence, bases, missiles, etc.”, he commented.
In a document published during the American government, in 2024, the US Department of Defense expressed the importance of the Arctic Ocean in stopping Washington’s competitors on the global stage.
“Major geopolitical shifts are driving the need for this new strategic approach to the Arctic, including Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, the accession of Finland and Sweden to the NATO Alliance, the growing collaboration between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia, and the accelerating impacts of climate change,” the document says.
Russia has 54% of the Arctic coastline and this privileged position gives Moscow favorable conditions to define maritime routes.
“If the Northern Sea Route becomes a vital link in global maritime transport, Russia’s almost total control over the route would give it economic and diplomatic leverage to expand its regional influence”, assesses Lee Mottola, an expert in Conflict, Security and Development in an article published in the Arctic Institute.
The analyst also states that China wants to use the Arctic to circumvent the control that the US imposes on geopolitical chokepoints for global navigation, such as the straits of Malacca and Gibraltar.
“The continuity of Sino-Russian cooperation on economic and strategic factors is an important reason for NATO to redouble its efforts and attention in the North,” adds Mottola.
Threat
With just 56,000 inhabitants, Greenland is a semi-autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark. Since assuming his second term, the US president has threatened to invade and annex the region, a measure that has been criticized by his own European allies.
“We need Greenland for our national security. If you look at Greenland, look up and down the coast, there are Russian and Chinese ships everywhere,” warned the head of the White House the day after bombing and invading .
Portuguese Major General Agostinho Costa highlights that the Trump administration has adopted measures similar to those of past centuries.
“The first thing Trump did when he took office was to say that he wanted the Panama Canal, that he wanted Canada as the 51st state of the USA and that he wanted Greenland. It’s a strategy that takes us back to the 15th or 16th century, of piracy, of control of the seas”, he concluded.
*With information from Agência Brasil
Published by Nícolas Robert
