Allies of the president of the Chamber, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), and the president of the National Congress, Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), argue that the analysis of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s veto of the dosimetry project takes place in February. Parliamentarians predict that Lula’s decision will be overturned by a wide margin. So far, however, there has been no indication from Alcolumbre about when this will happen. The senator is responsible for setting the agenda.
The assessment among interlocutors close to the Congress leadership is that the topic is unlikely to enter the first joint session of the year, which is traditionally more formal. There is, therefore, a defense for the topic to be left for the second meeting, when the agenda tends to gain political content.
Parliamentarians claim that, despite growing pressure, the president of Congress avoids bringing forward public commitments on the calendar.
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According to allies, this hammer should only be hit in the middle of the month. Before leaving Brasília, Alcolumbre told interlocutors that he would “return to the circuit” on the 19th, when he intends to resume activities in Congress.
The predominant assessment is that the inaugural session in 2026 will be dedicated to the formal opening of work and institutional communications.
The project vetoed by Lula became known in Congress as the “Dosimetry PL” and directly changes the criteria used by the Judiciary to calculate the sentences applied to those convicted of all the acts that culminated on January 8th.
One of the main points of the text bars conviction, after analyzing the defendants’ conduct, for two crimes of the same nature. In this case, the abolition of the Democratic Rule of Law and a coup d’état. Only the most serious penalty would be valid, and not the sum of the two sentences, as is the case today.
The text also relaxed the rules for regime progression in crimes against the Democratic Rule of Law. The proposal envisaged the application of the shortest possible prison time for regime change, without taking into account factors such as recidivism, use of violence or serious threats. As a result, convicts with good behavior could progress after serving around 16.6% of their sentence.
By vetoing the project in its entirety, Lula maintained that the text violated constitutional principles, compromised the individualization of sentences and represented interference by the Legislature in the responsibilities of the Judiciary.
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The veto was announced during a ceremony at Palácio do Planalto that marked three years since the attacks on the headquarters of the Three Powers, in a gesture seen in Congress as loaded with political symbolism.
Overthrow is taken for granted
The conviction that the veto will be overturned is shared by the opposition and a significant part of the Centrão. Senator Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI) stated that the result of the vote that approved the project indicates a practically agreed outcome, regardless of the calendar.
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— Dosimetry was approved in Congress with more than 300 votes, the veto will be easily overturned. Lula is doing this as a political and symbolic flag, much more than as something pragmatic, thinking that he will remain standing. It would not make sense for Hugo and Alcolumbre to go to an event that could sanction this veto, which is disrespectful to Parliament. This already says a lot about what Congress intends to do with the veto, if it is confirmed — he said.
Even among government allies, there is little optimism about maintaining the veto. Senator Weverton Rocha (PDT-MA), deputy leader of the government in the Senate, recognizes that the political environment is unfavorable to Planalto.
— Based on the climate of the vote that approved the dosimetry, I see little or no environment for maintaining the veto — he said.
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Despite this scenario, the government base is acting to postpone the assessment, betting that the time factor can reduce pressure and prevent the issue from dominating the reopening of the legislative year.
On the other side, the opposition and Centrão continue to push for a quick vote, confident that they will emerge “victorious”.
