The Government and the Brazilian military these days share a stupefaction: Venezuela and its destiny. The return of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to the presidency forced the Armed Forces to prove their professionalism and bury or forget about Bolsonaro’s outbursts. The capture and transfer to the United States of Nicolás Maduro finds Lula and the military leadership at a new point of accelerated consensus: not only because of what happened on January 3 in Caracas but because of their political derivatives which at the moment are difficult to define for analysts: Will Venezuela become a US “protectorate” that violates all international norms or will at some point resistance from a faction of the US begin? matureness against Washington’s impositions? Any alternative is cause for alarm. Not in vain did Lula say that what happened with Maduro meant the crossing of “an unacceptable line”. And not only, according to the president, because the United States caused a “very serious affront to sovereignty” Venezuela and established an “extremely dangerous precedent” at a global level. The “unacceptable line” is also figurative and represents the border of more than 2,000 kilometers that Brazil shares with its neighbor. The events that shake the region and the world can in turn have another political impact in Brazil. The presidential elections will take place in October and the right, whoever the candidate is, has expressed its sympathies with the Donald Trump Administration.
Brazil and Venezuela are separated by a demarcation that runs through the Amazon rainforest and is delimited mainly by watersheds. There is only one road crossing between the cities of Pacaraima, in the Brazilian state of Roraima, and Santa Elena de Uairén, in Bolívar. When the Venezuelan crisis worsened, starting in 2017, that step began to be taken by part of the general exodus. Currently about 300,000 Venezuelan migrants live in Brazilaccording to official figures. The press media double that number. On January 3, that crossing was closed but it reopened hours later. The Government decided, however, to reinforce the military presence with armored Army vehicles. “We have redoubled our attention here, in this place, with surveillance, more constant presence and patrols during the day,” said General Roberto Pereira Angrizani, commander of the 1st Selva Infantry Brigade. An increase in the migratory flow is not ruled out. “The evaluations carried out in the Planalto Palace and in security areas indicate that Instability in Venezuelan territory can generate direct impacts in the northern region of Brazil,” noted the Rio newspaper The Globe. “The Brazilian authorities also see the risk that the intensification of the conflict will facilitate the entry, across the border, of people linked to criminal organizations, especially drug trafficking”.
The unforeseen
The Brazilian Intelligence Agency (Abin) did not even contemplate an operation like the one carried out by the North American special forces a week ago. Abin is also responsible for informing the Government about issues such as Venezuela. However, since the beginning of Lula’s third term, he has found himself in conflict with a government that has cut his budget. The Union of State Intelligence Professionals (Intelis) assured that it was with the “hands tied” to “anticipate and confront the growing challenges to sovereignty Brazilian”. Lula suspects that within the organization there are still sectors that respond to Jair Bolsonaro.
Trump has boasted that the “decapitation” of Madurismo has “intimidated” other leaders in the region. He made no specific mention of any president. The magnate seemed to allude to Gustavo Petro, with whom he spoke at length by phone on Wednesday to reduce bilateral tension, but Political analysts do not rule out that Lula has seriously taken the new threats into account. that are emerging in Latin America from the determination of the United States to transgress international norms to discipline governments or aspire to unprecedented interference since the end of the Second World War that dispenses with military occupation. Brazilian autonomy is supported by an order based on creaking rules and treaties.
The elections
The Government’s concern is twofold and convergent. The events in Venezuela and the complex ties between Lula and Trump are part of the same scenario in an election year marked in turn by the incidents of 2025. The Brazilian trade balance closed last year with a surplus of 68.3 billion dollars, 7.9% less than in 2024 due to the tariffs of 50% that the Republican magnate applied to exports in retaliation for the trial he was facing Bolsonaro. 30% of the South American giant’s sales come from China as destination. It is its main partner in the BRICS, a bloc that the White House views with irritation.
The friction eased after a meeting at the UN and subsequent conversations. The former president was sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison and Washington was called to silence. Now, His son Flavio is emerging as Lula’s competitor in the October elections. For the moment, the polls favor the president. But The fear that tensions will be reactivated is latent.
Lula has vetoed a congressional law that substantially reduces the penalties for the coup plotters of January 8, 2023. Bolsonarism veils its weapons and entrusts itself to Trump’s wrath in solidarity with its old ally. The tension can restart at any time.
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