The proposal presented this Friday by the Minister of Finance combines clearly positive elements with others that will hinder its success.
The first thing to highlight is that this is a reform of the current system and not a rupture like the one implied by the literal agreement between the PSC and ERC for the investiture of Salvador Illa. Spain does not need more concerted systems or fragmentation of the Tax Agency. Fortunately, the proposal clears this up and puts us back on a federalist path. A relief.
The plan is also positive because it reduces the dispersion in financing per adjusted inhabitant that the current system causes and that generates comparative grievances. Everyone wins, but much more so those who are treated worse by the current system (Valencian Community, Murcia, Castilla-La Mancha and Andalusia) and much less so those who were in the first positions (La Rioja, Cantabria and Extremadura).
In the field of transparency and operations, there are lights and shadows. It is true that funds that complicated the model are eliminated, but others are created; It is a step forward that communities receive the money they are entitled to without having to wait for settlements that occur with a delay of two years, but it is not evident that the differentiated treatment of VAT collected by SMEs is a step forward.
The fundamental difficulty that the proposal will pose lies in the advancement of the so-called ordinality criterion. Apart from the underfinanced, the communities that gain the most in terms per capita They are, very prominently, Catalonia, to which are added Aragon, Madrid and the Balearic Islands. All of them are today at or above the average in financing per adjusted inhabitant. If the proposal is applied, the positive correlation between fiscal capacity and resources of regional governments will increase. This result is defensible, in the light of comparative experience. But it is also, and surely with greater constitutional foundation, a solution in which everyone would enjoy the same financing per adjusted inhabitant.
It is inevitable that this change in the standard of leveling will be perceived as a concession to the position of one of the autonomous communities and not the result of a multilateral negotiation process and a broad political agreement. It is true that Catalonia has always played a unique role in the reforms. But it had never been translated into a proposal so closed and precise for everyone. It is foreseeable that we will see a front of autonomous communities against it, which will strengthen the position of the PP and complicate the future of the proposal, despite its positive aspects.
Finally, we must highlight the high cost that the implementation of the agreement would entail for the central government: more than one point of GDP in a scenario of slowdown in economic activity and pressure on spending on state powers, such as defense or pensions.
