The president (PT) enters the election year politically leveraged by national and international agendas that strengthened an image of defending Brazil’s sovereignty, associated with the advancement of an agenda that is dear to his electorate.
The situation is different from the beginning of 2025, when the federal government sought to alleviate a sequence of public image crises — the main ones being the dissemination of fake news around . The moment served as a big deal for the opposition, which dominated the narrative on economic issues.
The new year begins, however, with the risk of thorny issues returning to the scene with investigations targeting one of the president’s sons. Furthermore, there is uncertainty in setting up platforms in important electoral colleges, such as Minas Gerais.
In December, an investigation by the Federal Police showed that a businesswoman who was a friend of Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, received R$300,000 on the orders of lobbyist Antonio Carlos Camilo Antunes, known as Careca from the National Social Security Institute.
The opposition tries to link the case to one of the main scandals faced by the current government — the embezzlement of benefits for INSS retirees and pensioners.
In response, Lula adopted the stance of defending the investigations, stating that, if his son is, he should be investigated.
The sequence of , which began with the tariff and the imposition of Magnitsky Law sanctions on Minister Alexandre de Moraes, of the (Supreme Federal Court), gave Lula the opportunity to recover for himself the agenda of national sovereignty, previously dominated by the Brazilian right, which during the differences between Brazil and the USA, partly sided with Donald Trump’s government.
Trump used the (PL) judgment in the STF to justify surcharges on Brazilian products and was supported by Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of the former president. By using retaliation as a reason for his father’s acquittal, the former deputy was accused of conspiring against the Brazilian economy, weakening his nationalist discourse — once the main banner of his father and allies.
The stance adopted by the government helped Lula’s popularity. In the midst of negotiations with the USA, Trump retreated and began to publicly praise the Brazilian president.
The relationship, however, is experiencing a moment of instability after the US attack on Venezuela. Although the Lula government did not recognize Nicolás Maduro’s election in 2024, the closeness between the two over the years has been exploited by the opposition to criticize the PT member and accuse him of supporting a dictatorial regime.
According to members and assistants of Palácio do Planalto, the government’s intention is to prevent the topic and the international situation from dominating debates in the .
The PT campaign should intensify mentions of the government’s achievements throughout this third term, such as the agendas approved in Congress and the economic results.
“The last year was very positive for President Lula’s government due to the good results in the economy, with a record reduction in unemployment and inflation under control”, says the Minister of Institutional Relations, Gleisi Hoffmann (PT).
“We approved very important agendas in Congress, such as the exemption from taxation for the richest, Gás do Povo and Luz do Povo, and because we launched a political dispute in society, around tax justice, national sovereignty and the defense of democracy”, he also says.
In communication, the government reinforced a discourse of combating privileges and defined a more explicit position by changing its slogan to “On the side of the Brazilian people”, replacing the old “Union and Reconstruction”.
Weaknesses
With his speech supporting the people and condemning privileges, Lula enters into a clash against an issue dear to Congress, especially the center: parliamentary amendments.
The issue has become one of the main points of friction between Congress and the STF since minister Flávio Dino determined a series of blocks and limitations on transfers.
Lula sided with the Supreme Court, questioning and (which have mandatory execution).
Alliances with names from the center are relevant to Lula’s platform in the search for re-election. The president is still seeking alliances with competitive candidates in important electoral strongholds, such as Minas Gerais and São Paulo.
In Minas, for example, he works with Tadeu Leite (MDB), president of the Legislative Assembly, and (PDT), former mayor of Belo Horizonte, as an alternative to senator Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG).
As a strategy to promote allied candidates across the country, Lula’s guidance to his ministers is that they leave the government from April onwards to run for public office in their states.
