ANALYSIS || The first full week of 2026 was decisive for Trump’s second term: Venezuela, Greenland, Cuba, Iran, the murder of Renee Good and the investigation into Jerome Powell, the fight against undocumented immigrants and the reversal of the progressive agenda. But his aggressiveness raises an urgent question: Is he pushing the US and the global system to a breaking point?
There goes the “it’s just throat” in the White House.
President Donald Trump is betting even more on retaliation, global domination and ruthless domestic power.
The first full week of 2026 was potentially decisive for Trump’s second term, after last year ended with predictions that his authority would wane under the curse of term-limited commanders in chief.
But Trump would never stand by and watch his strongman aura fade.
Trump overthrew dictator Nicolás Maduro from Venezuelaand plans to personally manage the country’s oil reserves while seeking to dominate the Western Hemisphere. Required ownership of the Greenland in a potential new imperialist land grab. And on Sunday, the administration vowed not to back down from its purge against undocumented migrants, despite the murder of the Minneapolis woman, , by an ICE agent.
The second week of the year began with another political bang on Sunday, when the chairman of the Federal ReserveJerome Powell, revealed that federal prosecutors have opened an investigation into the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters. Powell accused the government of persecuting him because he didn’t give in to Trump’s pressure for big interest rate cuts.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell visit the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation project, July 24, 2025, in Washington, DC. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Authorities have declined to elaborate on the case, but Powell’s claim to be a victim of Justice Department instrumentalization follows Trump’s use of federal power to accuse those he views as his enemies, including former FBI chief James Comey, in cases that have not always been proven in court.
Powell’s investigation will send an unmistakable message to his replacement, whom Trump is expected to nominate this year: Don’t ignore the president’s demands, even if they undermine the independence of the central bank, which has been a pillar of the powerful U.S. economy.
Trump is also grappling with another potential extraordinary adventure abroad. Advisors offered him options to reinforce his red line with military action against the Iranafter he warned that the US “will start shooting” if the regime cracks down on the growing protests. Despite their threats, hundreds of protesters were killed.
The US president also spent the weekend threatening Cuba on social media. His government hopes that control of Venezuela will pressure the communist regime, which has defied the US for 65 years, to make a deal with Washington or enter into political collapse.
So far this year, Trump has indicated that his second year in the White House will accelerate a trend from his first: show him a constitutional restriction, an international law or a status quoand your instinct will be to destroy it.
The result is that millions of people around the world now see their lives intimately tied to the whims of the most indomitable and unpredictable US president in generations.

Iranians gather and block a street during a protest in Tehran, Iran, on January 9. MAHSA/Middle East Images/Getty Images
Trump’s next big choice is about Iran
Trump is deciding whether to launch into an even more consequential crisis after the clerical regime of ayatollah Iran’s Ali Khamenei turned his guns on protesters despite warnings from the US president that this could trigger US action.
The possibilities may seem tempting for the White House.
► Could US action hasten the end of the Iranian Islamic Revolution, which crushed freedoms for more than 45 years, sowed terrorism and prevented the emergence of the new and prosperous Middle East that Trump believes is within his reach?
► Or will Trump and his team conclude that direct US support for protesters could end up intensifying the regime’s repression, which has already caused enormous loss of life? This has been a concern in several previous governments. Iran has also warned of reprisals against American bases and Israel if the US attacks.
► Uncertainty about what might happen next in Iran could also deter the government. A democratic transition is just one possible outcome if the regime falls. Some experts fear the emergence of a classic Middle Eastern secular strongman or the outbreak of a civil war that could trigger regional chaos and refugee flows.
► There is also the question of how much more the US military can handle. The Navy is already overburdened with maintaining a huge armada off Venezuela, which Trump plans to use to govern Caracas from afar. Long-range bombings, like those that targeted Iran’s nuclear program last year, can cause considerable damage. But could the US really make a significant difference in the street battles and local clashes that erupt in every city in Iran?
► Then there’s the question of Trump’s political stance, as the supposedly “America First” US president gives midterm election voters reason to question whether he has forgotten their economic concerns. The White House faced repeated rebukes from Congress last week over its war powers in Venezuela and the end of Obamacare’s enhanced subsidies. Republican Party discipline in the House is fracturing as anxious members face tough re-election fights. Still, as CNN reported last week, power .
Pending matters
The turbulent events of early January are consistent with Trump’s goal of creating maximum disruption after leaving office in 2021, believing that the forces of establishment they thwarted their best instincts.
The US president is trying to reverse decades of progress progressives — for example, in universities, law firms and companies — through the dismantling of diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives. And it is trying to redefine the United States’ relationship with the immigrantsnot just seeking to deport undocumented migrants, but with a series of measures to restrict legal immigration and even travel to the US by citizens of non-white nations.
There is no retreat.

Federal agents arrest a person in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on Sunday. Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg/Getty Images
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem signaled Sunday that the tragedy in Minnesota will do nothing to curb the administration’s hard line toward immigrants. She reinforced her narrative that Good committed an act of domestic terrorism, despite several videos from the scene casting doubt on that scenario. “The facts of the situation are that the vehicle was turned into a weapon and attacked the law enforcement officer. He defended himself and the people around him,” Noem told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union.”
But Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey said on the same program that the officer who shot Good was “a federal agent who used his power recklessly, which resulted in someone’s death.”
“Am I biased on this? Of course. I’m biased, because I have two eyes. Anyone can see these videos, anyone can see that this victim is not a domestic terrorist,” Frey said.
Trump, the agitator, is stirring similar discord abroad.
The US president’s new national security strategy shows how he plans to reshape the Western Hemisphere in his own MAGA image and for the US to dominate it. Trump’s pledge to personally control Venezuela’s oil exports represents a remarkable return to imperialism, even as he insists he will use the profits to benefit the country’s people. His failure to embrace the democratic opposition after Maduro’s ouster raises the possibility that he plans to preside over a petro-dictatorship for years before Venezuela undergoes a political transition.
Meanwhile, Trump’s appropriation of Greenland threatens to destroy NATO if Europeans do not capitulate to their colonial ambitions, as no one has ever contemplated an attack on a member by another member — much less by its most important country. White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller caused a stir in an interview with Tapper on “The Lead” last week when he described the new organizing principle of American foreign policy as based on strength, power and potency.
But another, less noticed statement from Miller pointed to the implications of Trump’s rapidly expanding international ambitions: He wants to end the post-World War II order led by the United States as comprehensively as his tariffs sought to fracture the global free trade system.
“The future of the free world, Jake, depends on the ability of the United States to assert itself and its interests without apologizing,” Miller said, calling for an end to “this whole period after World War II, when the West started apologizing, groveling, begging and engaging in these mass reparations schemes.”
Trump’s presidency is, in some ways, successful, but it runs huge risks
In many ways, Trump’s second presidency has been a success so far, measured on its own terms.
The president’s approval ratings may be below 40%, with many Americans despairing over his failure so far to make food, housing and medical care more affordable. But Trump secured the border and made good on his promises to pursue undocumented migrants and pressure Democratic jurisdictions that buck the White House. He is making strides in imposing his cultural ideology on institutions like the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts and the Smithsonian, and has used his platform to attack fact-based journalism — all goals that are supported by his most loyal supporters.

Donald Trump answers questions from the press aboard Air Force One on Sunday on his way to the White House from Palm Beach, Florida. Samuel Corum/Getty Images
Trump’s increasingly voracious attempts to gain global power are seen by some supporters as a break with “America First” principles. But Trump has pioneered the use of strong, overwhelming military power in operations in Iran and Venezuela, without engaging in the long, bloody ground wars that his base abhors.
However, his aggressiveness raises an increasingly urgent question: is he pushing the country and the global system to a breaking point?
The administration’s instinct to intensify ICE raids and deployments to Minnesota in the wake of Good’s murder seems certain to fuel more political antagonism and increase the possibility of more deaths or injuries that could turn Americans against each other.
Trump’s arrogance could become a problem, especially if his increasing tolerance for risk in military operations results in a tragedy for the US military. And Trump’s 21st century colonialism and rush to dominate regions and natural resources risks creating a world that rewards strongmen and empires while crushing the autonomy of smaller nations. Throughout history, such conditions have triggered terrible wars, which were prevented by the US-led order after 1945.
Trump’s rough start to 2026 may have dispelled impressions of his declining power for now. But this carries enormous risks. And America and the world may look very different when he leaves his desk, the “Resolute Desk.”
NT: the original expression of “lame duck”, which literally means “lame duck”, was translated here as “it’s just a throat”, as it adapts to someone who promises a lot of ambition but does not fulfill it.