What is her goal? If the US president is to be believed, the military pressure is intended to bring the Tehran regime to the negotiating table for a “fair” deal that will permanently erase the mullahs’ ambitions to acquire nuclear weapons.
However, last June Trump himself declared that the Iranian nuclear program “completely and utterly eliminated” with the US operation “Midnight Hammer” which simultaneously imposed a ceasefire in the “Twelve Day War” between Iran and Israel.
The permanent target
With half truths and half lies, with a rain of sanctions and bombs, the White House has a fixed goal of regime change in Tehran. “Help is on the way” Trump said a few weeks ago to anti-government protesters who were being massacred by regime forces.
Help finally arrived this week, in the form of the American armada that sailed into the Arabian Sea under the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, within striking distance of Iran. Last Wednesday, in his Senate hearing, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio he said that “no one can give a simple answer” to the question of what will happen in Iran if the regime of the ayatollah falls.
Planning
Apparently in the context of this reflection, the Pentagon’s list of targets was expanded while it was supplemented with the planning of “raids” on military and oil infrastructures, as the “New York Times” wrote. In other words, the sending of elite ground forces for sabotage, assassinations, and perhaps even kidnapping of regime officials was on the table. The scenario refers to a “Venezuela-style” intervention and is not far from Trump’s reasoning for dynamic crisis management. But Iran is not Venezuela.
The Arab regimes of the region publicly asked Washington not to hurt Iran, while Turkey also “advised” the Americans. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have assured the Iranians that they will not allow their airspace to be used for a US attack. In fact, the kingdoms and emirates are much more concerned about themselves than the fate of the Shiite regime in Tehran, which is able to hit with missiles not only US bases in these countries, but also their oil facilities.
“To do something”
Another scenario foresees the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran. Will the Iranians sit idly by, watching the Arabs extract oil and theirs not being able to get out of the Gulf? They can mine the Straits of Hormuz while they have announced a live-fire military exercise in the area next week.
Trump said on Thursday that he was talking to the Iranian leadership: “I told them two things, no nukes, no killing protesters. I stopped 837 hangings. But they will have to do something.” That “something” remains murky, as do American plans for the next day in Iran.
