The final conversation to define the electoral future of the Minister of Planning and Budget, Simone Tebet, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) should take place right after Carnival. Allies of the former senator fear that she will lose the timing to run as a candidate if the decision drags on for a few more weeks.
Tebet has already publicly stated that he placed his electoral future in Lula’s hands. The minister’s preference is to run again for a seat in the Federal Senate, either in São Paulo or in her home state, Mato Grosso do Sul.
The assessment of close interlocutors is that speculation about a possible candidacy for the Senate in São Paulo has strengthened it, with positive impacts on local polls in Mato Grosso do Sul. Without a definition, however, the electoral timing could be lost.
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Lula has cited vice-president Geraldo Alckmin and ministers Fernando Haddad and Simone Tebet as potential candidates for the positions being contested in São Paulo – two seats in the Senate and the state government.
Alckmin and Haddad would start ahead of the minister, who has also been mentioned as a possible candidate for vice president, if the former governor of São Paulo does not join the presidential ticket. Internally, the assessment is that the MDB would be unlikely to agree to serve as vice-president on a PT ticket in October, which reduces the chances of Tebet assuming this role at this time. She would not be inclined to change parties as “Plan A”, although she has already been approached by other parties, such as Alckmin’s PSB.
In the MDB, the analysis is that there is a majority in favor of neutrality and that the party would not support a national split, running the risk of losing space, as happened with the PSDB.
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On the other hand, in the government there is a feeling that Haddad would not be able to refuse a possible request from Lula to run for office again in October, despite his resistance.
In conversations with allies, Lula has been discussing the electoral process, but is still in no rush to define the moves he will make. Members of the presidential circle consider the election delicate, even with the government’s good numbers.
For them, the definition of strategic platforms, such as São Paulo, and the vice candidate will be decisive for the success of the campaign and should occur even before the party conventions, when the candidacies are made official.
