The perception that the planet is moving towards a large-scale conflict has soared in several Western democracies. A survey carried out by POLITICO in five countries – the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France and Germany – reflects a notable change in climate: the majority of citizens consider that The world is more dangerous today than just a year ago and sees the outbreak of a Third World War as plausible in the short term.
The survey, carried out between February 6 and 9 among more than 2,000 voters in each country, shows that in four of the five States analyzed (USA, Canada, United Kingdom and France) The idea prevails that a global conflict is more likely than unlikely in the next five years. Only in Germany does the majority opinion continue to lean towards that this scenario is not plausible in the short term.
Seb Wride, head of studies at the firm Public First – which had already raised this issue in March 2025 -, highlights that the shift in public opinion has been rapid and profound. In less than a year, he explains, the feeling of insecurity has intensified to the point of normalizing the possibility of a large-scale war in a context of alliances perceived as fragile.
The Trump factor and global instability
Concern does not arise in a vacuum. The total war that Russia maintains against Ukraine enters in its fifth year without a clear exitwhile under the mandate of Donald Trump the United States has carried out military actions in scenarios such as Iran, Syria, Venezuela and various parts of Africa.
In this context, almost half of Americans (46%) consider it “likely” or “very likely” that a new world war will break out before 2031, compared to 38% who thought this way in 2025. In the United Kingdom, the jump is also significant: from 30% to 43% in just one year.
American citizens are also those who most frequently believe that their own country will be involved in a war in the next five years, followed by the British and French. The data suggests that in NATO nuclear powers there is a more direct perception of risk. It also points out that Trump’s image as a “president of peace” does not fully convince his electorate.
The fear of nuclear escalation is not marginal either: at least one in three Respondents in the United States, United Kingdom, France and Canada consider the use of atomic weapons likely in an upcoming conflict.
Regarding perceived threats, Russia appears as the main danger to European stability. However, In Canada, many point to the United States as the greatest source of risk to their national security. In France, Germany and the United Kingdom, Washington appears as the second most cited threat, ahead of China.
More defense… but without paying the bill
Increased concern does not automatically translate into political support for increased military spending. Although in France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Canada there is theoretical support for increasing defense budgets, That support weakens as soon as the practical consequences arise.
When voters are asked how to fund that effort:
- Cuts in other public services
- Greater state debt
- Tax increases
In Germany, defense spending is among the least popular priorities, ahead only of foreign aid. In France and Germany, support for increasing the military budget when associated costs are mentioned has fallen sharply compared to last year. In 2025, 40% of French and 37% of Germans accepted this option despite the necessary compensations; this year support falls to 28% and 24%, respectively.
Wride summarizes the paradox: growing concern about war does not give governments carte blanche to invest massively in weapons. On the contrary, Voters today seem less willing to make economic sacrifices to reinforce security.
European Army and compulsory service
The survey also investigates structural proposals. The idea of creating a standing army of the European Union under central command – a possibility mentioned by the European Commission – generates skepticism. Only 22% of Germans and 17% of French people support it.
Instead, the reestablishment of Compulsory military service is more widely accepted in France and Germanywhere approximately half of the citizens are favorable.
The data paints a complex scenario for Western leaders, who are preparing to debate these challenges at the Munich Security Conference. With stressed public finances and alarmed citizens but reluctant to assume costs, strengthening collective defense is emerging as a politically delicate task in a world that many perceive as increasingly close to the abyss.
