The Trump administration’s decision to ease fuel shipments to Cuba’s nascent private sector is part of a plan to make the island more dependent on the United States for supplies, increasing Washington’s bargaining power to promote political and economic change, according to people familiar with the strategy.
A quarantine on crude oil shipments to Cuba has pushed the Caribbean country to the brink of a humanitarian crisis after the US captured Venezuela’s leader and sidelined Mexico with the threat of tariffs. The energy crisis is expected to force the government in Havana to accept oil under US-imposed conditions, giving the Trump administration a way to loosen the Communist Party’s grip after more than six decades of uninterrupted rule.
The plan remains in the works, although tensions are high following Wednesday’s fatal confrontation between Cuban authorities and a group of 10 Cubans living in the US aboard a Florida-registered speedboat near the island’s coast.
Everything you need to know to protect your wallet
Trump’s strategy includes reassuring energy companies that they can sell oil and fuel to small and medium-sized private Cuban companies, said the sources, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
Another part of the plan is to authorize the resale of Venezuelan oil to Cuba, with the Treasury Department stating that its Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) will “implement a favorable licensing policy” in specific cases. Sales that benefit the Cuban government remain prohibited.
Asked about the strategy, a White House official said that “Cuba is a bankrupt nation, whose rulers suffered a major setback with the loss of support from Venezuela and the end of oil shipments from Mexico.”
Continues after advertising
Faced with an acute energy crisis, Cuba recently began allowing private companies to import fuel under certain conditions. Although volumes are still small, the objective is to expand these operations to the point of transforming American companies into the main source of oil for the Cuban private sector, replacing decades of dependence on remittances from left-wing allies sympathetic to the Havana government, the sources said.
The new strategy “signals that the Trump administration is recognizing the Cuban private sector as a legitimate partner on the ground,” said Ricardo Herrero, executive director of the Cuba Study Group, a Washington-based think tank. “It is not something that will replace the entire oil industry, but it will take fuel to where it is most needed.”
Wednesday’s incident, however, highlights how volatile the situation is on both sides of the Florida Strait. The Cuban Coast Guard shot and killed four of the vessel’s 10 passengers, saying the group was heavily armed and planned to launch an insurrection on the island.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in comments contained during a summit of Caribbean leaders in St. Kitts, announced that the US would conduct its own investigation before drawing conclusions. For now, the shooting is unlikely to disrupt Washington’s plans, one of the sources said.
President Donald Trump reinforced the offensive to overthrow the regime in Havana after the January operation that captured Nicolás Maduro, one of Cuba’s greatest godfathers. Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, told Bloomberg News this month that Havana will have to offer more economic and political freedom to ease U.S. pressure.
Trump’s plan follows the National Security Strategy released in December, which reaffirms US primacy in the Western Hemisphere, especially in the face of external powers such as Russia and China — a kind of derivation of the 19th century Monroe Doctrine. Although Moscow has supported Cuba for decades, China has expanded its operations on the island in recent years.
Continues after advertising
The first shipments to private companies have been diesel, used to power trucks and generators on an island that has suffered from constant blackouts for years. Cuba’s precarious electrical grid depends on old thermoelectric plants that need around 100,000 barrels of oil per day to meet demand. The island produces just two-fifths of that, making it dependent on external suppliers.
After Trump threatened to impose tariffs on any country that sent oil to Cuba, the island went more than a month without receiving a large shipment for the first time in more than a decade. Demand for fuel is now overwhelming, according to a business consultant in Havana, who says the private import process is still shrouded in uncertainty, as for years the monopoly on fuel imports was state-owned.
Still, some food and merchandise importers have recently managed to bring in fuel, said Oniel Díaz, founder of AUGE, which serves about 30 small businesses on the island and has advised more than 400 clients over the years.
Continues after advertising
Díaz also warned of security risks. “Importing fuel is not the same thing as importing beer or chicken,” he said. “There are many technical details that are still unclear.”
The instability in energy supply has led many small businesses to invest in solar panels and batteries. But fuel shortages are stifling businesses that rely on deliveries and operating heavy machinery. Cubans who used to cook with gas now prepare food over a wood fire.
Cuba’s first move to allow private companies to import fuel occurred in December. But only at the beginning of this month, as part of contingency plans in the face of the quarantine imposed by the USA, did the government detail the rules. Today, private importers can only bring fuel for their own consumption, without reselling it to third parties.
Continues after advertising
But “somehow this fuel will end up in the informal market”, predicts Díaz. “The demand is so great that someone will see this as a business opportunity.”
It is precisely this entrepreneurial spirit — which helped Cubans through the end of the Soviet Union and now the loss of Venezuela as a sponsor — that the US hopes to channel. Rubio told reporters on Wednesday that Cuba has “a collapsing system” and that Havana has little alternative but to aggressively change course.
“If they want to make profound reforms that open up space for economic and eventually political freedom for the Cuban people, obviously the United States would like to see that,” he said. “We would be partners.”
Continues after advertising
The Trump administration remains interested in replacing Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel and has held talks with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of Raúl Castro, Fidel’s brother, according to one of the sources.
In the US administration’s view, Díaz-Canel has failed the economy and is incapable of promoting the necessary political and economic changes, this person said.
A colonel in the Interior Ministry, the younger Castro is seen as someone with deep family ties to the military conglomerate that controls much of the Cuban economy.
Asked about the negotiations, the White House official said: “As the president has stated, we are talking to Cuba, and its leaders should make a deal.”
The Cuban government has not yet publicly acknowledged the talks, and it is unclear how Cuban-Americans in South Florida, who supported Trump, will react to the idea of the government negotiating with a member of the Castro family.
But if the reaction of the Venezuelan community in the US to the American decision to leave Maduro’s number 2 in charge in Caracas is anything to go by, Rubio and the president may already be on relatively solid ground.
© 2026 Bloomberg L.P.
