The idea of a “flying car” has gained traction again with videos of prototypes and announcements from manufacturers, but, in real life, the path is more realistic: the most accurate and appropriate term is eVTOL, an acronym for Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Vehiclesdesigned to fly on short, urban routes, not to travel on streets and highways.
For Arthur Igreja, a specialist in Technology and Innovation, the discussion that interests the public is less about “fashion” and more about evidence: what already works in the real world, what still depends on tests and certifications and what factors could delay the arrival of the service to ordinary passengers, from safety and flight rules to noise, weather, infrastructure and price.
It’s not a “car” and, for now, it’s not transportation
To begin with, it is worth separating popular language from technical reality. Arthur Igreja draws attention to a point that may go unnoticed: This is not a vehicle that alternates between wheels and wings, nor is it a hybrid solution aimed at the roads.
In practice, he says that the name “flying car” has become a term that can lead to misperceptions. “What exists are eVTOLs: with vertical take-off and flight capabilities. They are not intended to become cars, nor are they designed to run on roads. And, when we talk about real operation, the scenario is still very limited: there are cases sold for extremely specific uses and outside controlled environments, but most of what we see today is still in the field of prototypes”, he states.
According to the expert, there are demonstrations and development, but regular urban transport with passengers is not yet a consolidated reality in Brazil.
As for when this type of “vehicle” becomes a reality, the expert makes it clear that the sector has already experienced several “promised dates” that have slipped and, therefore, it is not possible to set a date. This can happen due to a number of factors, including a combination of sensitive technology, regulation and industrial maturity.
“It is incredibly difficult to set a date, because in the past we have had several, and the deadlines have been pushed forward. We may have important approvals and relevant advances this year, but I prefer not to set it”, he says.
He is betting, however, on a clear acceleration movement: “I believe in a big leap in the next five years, closely linked to the advancement of batteries, sensors and technology, which helps to make things operational”, he points out.
Another point that the specialist draws attention to is the shape of these vehicles. According to him, the sector initially aimed at an “electrified helicopter” (with a pilot and few passengers), but technological advances changed the product’s design.
“About eight years ago, the industry was moving towards a format similar to an electrified helicopter, but batteries and control systems evolved so much that development went in another direction: the passenger being the pilot”, he states.
What does it take for “flying cars” to happen?
If the prototype flies, why doesn’t it reach the public soon? For the specialist, the bottleneck is less “work of” and more “paper and engineering”, with a final component that is usually decisive: money.
“What is missing is certification, flight rules. Vertiport tends to be less of a problem. There are also other obstacles, such as the lack of batteries, but on the other hand, the existing engines are incredibly efficient.”
The challenge is also to do everything operate simply and safely: “What is missing are control systems that are sufficiently easy, and economic viability. It is a new and comprehensive technology, but also sensitive, because the potential danger is high. That is why everything is done very carefully, and not at the speed that people expect”, he states.
Decisive factor: safety
In the public debate, security is the central point. And here there is a contrast: commercial aviation is one of the safest means, but it reached this level after decades of evolution.
Arthur remembers that, by definition, everything that flies is designed in a redundant way, an important factor in achieving a high degree of reliability.
At the same time, he draws attention to a cultural aspect of today’s society: “Traditional aviation has become immensely safe, with very low fatality rates per passenger transported, but there was a learning curve: with each accident, something was learned and this was incorporated into the rest of the fleet. Today it is different, there is instant video, everyone commenting. If an incident happens, which would even be ‘natural’ in a learning curve, how would the public and the industry react? The chance of having this tolerance is smaller.”
Weather and cancellations: closer to the helicopter than the plane
Another likely frustration, if the promise becomes a service, is the routine: wind, rain and visibility can weigh more than popular imagination assumes.
For the specialist, the climate limit is a consequence of the “address” of the flight. “It’s not very different from a helicopter. It’s a low-altitude aircraft, where climate variables are more extreme”, he says.
He compares it with airplanes to explain: “The engine gains operating margin because, after a certain altitude, it enters more stable layers of the atmosphere. Here this is not the case. It often depends on visual flight, and the operating range with wind is smaller. This means that everyday life can have restrictions and cancellations more frequently than people imagine.”
Do “flying cars” make noise?
If the eVTOL is electric, is it silent? The answer is neither “yes” nor “no”. It’s “it depends, and it’s still uncomfortable”.
Arthur describes that the noise changes in nature: “Electric motors resemble drones: it is a sharper, more strident sound, different from the combustion engine. These takeoffs do not take place in the middle of the street and therefore the takeoff and landing points need to be strategic and carefully selected, precisely because of the noise and proximity.”
How much will it cost to have this experience?
For Arthur, the price of experiencing this experience follows the script of almost all technology: first elite, then (perhaps) popularization, if there is scale.
He also adds that the talk of “making it cheaper” only makes sense if the market is large: “If there is no curve to make it cheaper, the account won’t work out. There is no scale, there is no addressable market.”
And it provides an important warning to the consumer: initially, the price may not reflect the real cost. “The initial values will probably be artificially lower than reality, as happened with platforms that burn capital to attract users. Only then will the business seek profitability”, he says.
