The use of up to R$500 million from the FGO (Operations Guarantee Fund) for Pronaf operations should act as an instrument to sustain the offer of official credit in an environment of greater default and tightening of guarantees in the field, according to sources interviewed by CNN involved in the preparation of the Safra Plan.
The authorization reflects a structured diagnosis by the economic team: the main obstacle today is not the volume of resources or interest rates, but the deterioration of guarantees in the field and the growing selectivity of banks when assessing risk.
Data from the BC (Central Bank) indicate that default on rural credit lines reached 3.31% in December, and that, when added to the outstanding operations, around 6% of the portfolio remains in this condition — equivalent to around R$45 billion out of a total of R$816 billion.
This increase in risk, driven by judicial recoveries and recent climate events, has led banks to tighten guarantee criteria, such as the requirement for fiduciary alienation, reducing access to traditional credit, according to technicians interviewed by the report.
In this context, the FGO is not just a short-term reinforcement, but a risk mitigation mechanism capable of preserving the supply of official credit in an environment of greater selectivity in bank balance sheets, without requiring additional direct contributions from the Treasury.
At the same time, market developments reinforce the need for instruments such as FGO. According to the Agro Private Finance Bulletin released by Mapa (Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock), the stock of private bonds in the sector totaled R$1.36 trillion in January 2026 — a financing base that has been gaining more and more weight compared to traditional rural credit.
The Rural Product Certificate (CPR) reached R$560.26 billion, an increase of 17% compared to January 2025; the Agribusiness Letter of Credit (LCA) reached R$589.79 billion, an increase of 11%; and the Agribusiness Receivables Certificate (CRA) totaled R$ 177.87 billion, growth of 16% in the same period.
The developers of the Safra Plan interpret this growth as part of a partial migration of the sector’s financing to the capital market and private structures, especially at times when official credit faces greater restrictions due to risk and guarantees.
The expansion of these sources reinforces, in internal diagnosis, the need for public risk mitigation instruments, such as the FGO itself, to keep rural credit on the supply radar of financial institutions.
Project 2213/25 had already been processed in the Senate and was approved in the Chamber of Deputies this Thursday (26). It now goes to presidential sanction before taking effect.
The proposal — authored by the government leader — provides that resources managed by Banco do Brasil will be able to guarantee part of family farming operations within the scope of rural credit.
