Early signs point to a meticulously planned attack by the US and Israel — an attack that prompted Iran to escalate its hostilities to the maximum, with a wave of missiles targeting American bases across the region.
It is still unclear who in the Iranian leadership was hit. There are many assurances that the top brass is fine, but Israel’s success in decimating Tehran’s security in last year’s 12-day war suggests that they would not try again without believing that similar brutal efficiency was possible.
The ferocity of the Iranian response — coming from an arsenal certainly smaller than desired — may suggest that they have suffered some losses at high levels, but they also want to put missiles into operation while they still can.
“They may magically have a much larger collection of medium- and long-range missiles than previously thought, and Israel has championed the idea of a quickly reconstituted program. But they are more likely still weakened by last year’s conflict, and it is important to remember that this weakness does not disappear because of retaliation against .”
Exact details are still being released, but government buildings are clearly among the targets, and during the 12-day war Israel struck individual rooms in apartment buildings. It is unlikely that in the chaos that followed that war, the Israelis did not intensify their intelligence-gathering efforts, and in fact they may have a clearer picture of who is doing what in the Iranian security apparatus than they did before.
“Where does this leave the war now? People are not prepared for a sustained weeks-long campaign, or for the possibility of an all-out war to physically dislodge the Iranian regime. ‘Several days’ is not a long time in relative terms. So we may see a continuous series of attacks, hitting specific targets, and then a pause — perhaps an indication that negotiations, if swift, could bring an end to the violence.”
The extent and ongoing nature of Iran’s response in the coming days will clarify whether they truly possess the hidden strength that Israel claims, or whether they are desperately weak and increasingly exposed as such.
