A death of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khameneias a result of attacks carried out by the United States and Israel, generated intense debates about the future of the Iranian regime. However, according to international law expert Daniel Toledo, honorary professor at the University of Oxford, only a military incursion into Iranian territory would be capable of overthrowing the current theocratic.
In his analysis, Toledo explains that Iran’s political structure differs significantly from other countries. According to article 111 of the Iranian Constitution, in the absence of the supreme leader, a council formed by the current president, Masoud Pezeshkian, by the head of the judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and by a third person appointed by the Guardian Council. This group would be responsible for maintaining the theocratic regime.
“For there to be a , which is what Donald Trump wants and what Israel also wants, it is necessary to have a military incursion inside the country. Historically, there is no country that has had a regime change without an infantry incursion,” said Toledo.
The expert also highlighted the geographic challenges for possible military intervention in Iran. “Invading Iran is the same feeling you would have climbing a wall with people shooting from above. Because there we have the hills to the north and west, the mountains to the north and west, a large desert in the middle and everything else is Iran’s defense area”, he explained.
Toledo also mentioned growing concerns in the United States about possible Iranian retaliation, including terrorist attacks. According to him, groups financed by Iran, such as Hezbollahreceive approximately US$6 billion (more than R$30.8 billion) annually in armaments, which represents a significant threat to neighboring countries and even the United States. In Houston, Texas, where the specialist was located, there were already guidelines to avoid large gatherings, such as the city’s traditional rodeo, due to the risk of attacks.
What is happening?
promising to annihilate the country’s armed forces and destroy its nuclear program.
In an eight-minute video published on the Truth Social network, Trump accuses Iran of rejecting “all opportunities to renounce its nuclear ambitions” and stated that the US “can’t take it anymore”. Israel also announced attacks against Iran.
Unlike the last time the US and Israel attacked Iran, in June 2025, these attacks began in broad daylight, in the early hours of this Saturday – the first day of the week in Iran – while millions of people were going to work or study.
And while the American attacks in June ended within hours, sources told CNN International that this time, the American military is planning attacks over several days.
CNN International had previously reported that, along with other key leaders.
In response, the Iranian regime launched a wave of , with explosions heard in several countries that host American military bases, including: United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Iraq.
