In a speech virtually unprecedented in form and content, the president of France announced a key strategic change in the country’s nuclear doctrine. Through the hand of Emmanuel Macron, in the final stretch of his presidency, Europe will enter the era of “advanced deterrence”, because “to be free we have to be feared”, he warned. But what does all this imply? And what happens next?
With the Île Longue nuclear military base as a backdrop, on the third day of attacks by the United States of America and Israel on Iran, Emmanuel Macron took to the pulpit this afternoon to do what many, especially within Europe, have been wanting to hear for months, if not years.
“Today we can take a new step in France’s deterrence,” said the French president at the base in northwest France that houses the country’s nuclear submarines. “We must strengthen our nuclear deterrence in the face of the combination of threats we face and we must think about our deterrence strategy within the European continent, in full respect of our sovereignty, with the progressive implementation of what I will call advanced deterrence. To be free, we must be feared.”
The issue of the “strategic dialogue” that is now beginning is not new: in 2020, a month after Donald Trump left the White House, Macron already had European partners, but was largely ignored. And this wasn’t his first attempt. “Basically, everyone now agrees with what Macron said in 2017”, when he was elected president of France, Julien Hoez, geopolitical analyst and editor of The French Dispatch, told CNN. “They’re nine years late, but better late than never, right? Finally, we’re going to have a proper European nuclear deterrent.”
In an unprecedented step, the only country in the European Union with a nuclear arsenal, along with the United Kingdom, will increase the number of warheads and spread them across the continent, in a joint effort with seven other countries, led by Germany, along with Poland, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium and Greece. As announced by Macron, Paris will also begin working closely with Berlin and London to develop “very long-range missiles”, with the new doctrine allowing European partners to participate in military exercises with French strategic forces and deploy their conventional armies on missions in support of these forces.
A new paradigm
The changes are many and unprecedented, starting with the rapprochement between France and Germany in matters of security and defense. When it comes to nuclear, says Hoez, “Germany has always been on hold, above all for the drama of having reduced its nuclear energy production capabilities, with the closure of the plants, but what has happened now is that, although still hesitant in relation to French weapons, the Germans finally seem to understand that they have to work with the French”. Why? “Because things are becoming ridiculously unstable, in a way that there was no other way.”
So ridiculously unstable that we are facing an obvious return to , a military strategy that was in force during the Cold War in which, faced with the potential use of weapons of mass destruction by two rival sides that would result in the annihilation of both, attacker and defender, the focus was on deterrence, with the ability to counterattack ensuring that neither would start a conflict.
In his speech, Macron gave three arguments to order the increase in the French nuclear arsenal and the change in the European paradigm, invoking Russia’s war in Ukraine, the increase in China’s military power and the new US defense priorities, as outlined in the infamous National Security Strategy that the Trump administration presented at the end of last year.
“A lot of this has to do mainly with Russia and the USA”, considers Julien Hoez. “Not long ago we had the United States threatening to take over Greenland – fortunately someone realized that it was a very stupid idea to end NATO over a rock – and Russia continues to threaten Europe, plunging deeper and deeper into war.”
Faced with “increasingly ridiculous and extravagant actions that are very dangerous for Europeans”, ponders the French analyst, France’s unprecedented step was the only way forward, especially because, as the president himself highlighted, since 2020 “the rivals have evolved, as have our partners” – in a speech that, for Hoez, contains two big ideas. “Macron has said not only that he will increase the number of nuclear warheads, but he will no longer disclose their number, and that is one of the most important things: in the context of MAD theory, there has to be strategic ambiguity, our rivals cannot simply know what to count on to eliminate us.”
But the most important phrase in the entire speech, argues Hoez, wasn’t even that: it was the warning made by Macron without mincing words, when he said that anyone who wants to attack France or its allies knows the price they will have to pay. “It’s a threat to everyone, not just Iran, Russia or China, but everyone – including the US, which not long ago was preparing to attack the Europeans. Now we have France as the leading nuclear actor in the European Union and also a great opportunity to involve the UK in this and slowly integrate it into the European defense apparatus.”
The problems ahead
Work must begin immediately. Over the next few weeks and months, the countries involved in the new “advanced deterrence” doctrine will have a lot to negotiate and details to agree on, including where the warheads will be positioned, the rotation of the French strategic air forces, which protect the nuclear arsenal, the establishment of security protocols, stricter controls and how France will relate to other countries – mainly because, as Emmanuel Macron made a point of highlighting, he and whoever replaces him in 2027 will always have the final say on this weaponry.
In addition, the seven countries in dialogue with Paris will have to study the strengthening of their own armed forces and understand how and when the military presence will be reinforced around the nuclear arsenal, which requires renewed debates on military cooperation – “either at EU level or outside the NATO structure”, highlights Julien Hoez, “because, again, we cannot trust the USA”.
“I would say that these discussions will take place over the next few months and, in addition, there is a whole range of topics to debate and negotiate, from closer cooperation between France and Germany, to new nuclear ballistic missile submarines, which should begin to be built soon, and a fairer distribution of defense efforts, the creation of missile factories, action groups for military operations, more robust military forces at European level… All these layers highlight the difficulties that lie ahead.”
With so many, will it be possible for the European Union, which was never created as a military power and never had a truly collective defense, to establish itself as a power? Hoez believes it is possible, but it will be necessary to wait and see – namely, wait for the legislative elections in Hungary on April 12th.
“The great blocking force has been Hungary, but if, on April 12, Péter Magyar defeats Viktor Orbán – and Orbán does not behave like Putin to remain in power – there is a great chance that the European Council will be able to change the treaties and move forward with the dossiers that were blocked, such as starting to have votes by qualified majority and ending the mandatory veto”, says the expert.
“All of this has been dependent on Orbán being in power. And this could change with Magyar, who presents himself as pro-European, in favor of adopting the euro, in favor of a more pro-Ukraine stance, being very critical of Orbán’s confrontation with EU partners and his proximity to Russia. But everything will depend on internal pressures, on the support that Magyar will obtain from the Member States and on the majority he will be able to achieve – or not.”
