With his and his missiles, the country was left headless, without its supreme religious leader. The obvious choice to take the post is that of Khamenei’s eldest son, Information wanted the 88-person body (Assembly of Experts) responsible for deciding on the succession to have already met once.
The House met online, but no decision was taken. At the same time, it is not known how many of the 88 are still alive. This will take days, at least, to clarify.
Israel: Target any successor
This is not surprising, given the message Israel has sent in all directions that whoever the successor is, he too will be a target. This warning brings back memories of Israel’s successive assassinations of Hamas leaders in Gaza (the list has 10 names for 2025-2026). And these are supplemented by assassinations in Lebanon, and even in Iran before the war.
It is not the most attractive position of the leader of Hamas, Hezbollah or Iran.
Is Moztaba more hardline than his father?
Iranian officials and analysts estimate in any case that Moztaba Khamenei would likely choose an even more hard-line policy than that of his late father as supreme leader.
Other contenders include Hassan Khomeini – grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khomeini, who would potentially seek a more moderate and less oppressive leadership.
Also on the list is Alireza Arafi, a hardline cleric who was appointed as part of a transitional government after Khamenei’s assassination a few days ago.
According to a Wall Street Journal report, the rise of the younger Khamenei would mark a departure from the traditional religious leadership that was critical to the founding of the Islamic Republic, analysts and people close to the Iranian government told the paper.
Moztaba Khamenei represents the paramilitary forces and more radical clerics who have emerged in recent years as the most powerful actors in the country, these people said.
An Iranian official described him as much tougher than his father.
Unknown when Iran’s next leader will be elected
When the vote will take place is unknown after Israel on Tuesday reportedly fired a missile at the building in the Iranian city of Qom, one of Shiite Islam’s main seats of power, where the assembly was to be held. The information attributed to the Fars News Agency of the Revolutionary Guards has not yet been officially confirmed.
However, the US and Israel have killed so many high-ranking Iranian officials that US President Trump said yesterday that “pretty soon we won’t know anyone” [από αυτούς που θα έχουν απομείνει].
Whether succession favorite Moztaba Khamenei will be as or more hardline than his father remains to be seen, should he take over.
Abdulreza Davari, a politician close to Moztaba Khamenei, has said in public statements and in interviews with The New York Times that if Moztaba Khamenei were to succeed his father, he could emerge as a figure in the style of Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman. “He is extremely progressive and will move to sideline the hardliners,” Mr. Davari said in a text message before the war.
But this is not the prevailing theory.
It is known in governmental as well as diplomatic and military circles of the Middle East that Moztaba Khamenei has close ties with the Revolutionary Guards. The Guards, according to sources close to the theocratic regime officials, pushed for his appointment. They consider him to be the leader the country needs, as he knows the security services and the armed forces very well.
Even if he succeeds in becoming supreme leader, Iranians, Arabs and Western officials wonder how long Moztaba Khamenei could survive the American and Israeli attacks.
US – Israel will continue attacks on Iran’s top officials
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has made it clear that the two countries will continue attacks against both senior officials and whoever emerges as Khamenei’s successor.
If the Special Body is – in part – decimated and unable to make a decision, and given the American and Israeli strategy to completely destroy government, military and other structures such as Guard barracks and intelligence services, a situation of chaos, similar to that in Iraq in 2003, where no one controlled the slightest thing, could not be ruled out.
This possibility is small but not negligible. In any case, whatever choice is made will leave a significant part of the population disaffected – or worse, push them into new mobilizations if a person under the protection of the Revolutionary Guards prevails.
And then the question might not be “who runs Iran?” but “what kind of Iran will emerge from the chaos of anarchy and destruction”?
