“This is Trump’s war,” according to Ross Douthat of the New York Times. Yes, in the secondary sense that Trump intuited the possibility of putting his signature on a historic triumph. But in a strategic sense, it is Netanyahu’s war.
The logic, confirmed by Marco Rubio’s inconfidence, says that the decision came from – and the US followed its smaller ally. The destruction of the Jewish State forms the DNA of the Iranian State built after the 1979 revolution. For Israel, overthrowing the theocratic regime is a national objective. But for the US, the all-out attack is just a war of choice, thinly disguised by Trump’s false claims about a supposed imminent risk to American security.
“Israel First”, not “America First”. Ali Larijani, who today heads the Iranian regime, emphasized the source of the fatal decision in order to foment tensions between Maga and the American president. Maga, a neonationalist and isolationist movement, opposes the “endless wars” denounced by Trump in the election campaign and accuses the American political elite of submission to Israeli conveniences. Today, curiously, the accusation is directed against Trump, leader of Maga.
It is said that Khamenei’s elimination was the result of a brilliant joint US and Israeli intelligence operation. However, the role played by Khamenei himself in the plot is forgotten. The Supreme Leader preferred to remain in his usual office, refusing the alternative of hiding in the fortified bunker that protected him during the bombings last June. The conscious option for martyrdom was intended to rekindle the flame of the Shiite revolution.
The is not a Venezuela displaced to the Persian Gulf. Theocracy is rooted in the deep soil of religious ideology. It is radically different from the Caribbean kleptocratic dictatorship organized around Maduro. In the war against Iraq, between 1980 and 1988, waves of fanatical Iranian fighters sacrificed themselves by advancing on the enemy’s batteries. Khamenei martyred himself to revive the extinguished fire, pushing the Iranian regime into unlimited combat.
The Chinese military moves on the social media battlefield. In an almost poetic post dedicated to the “lessons” of the attack on Iran, they noted the “cruelest of paradoxes”: the “illusion of victory”. Wise words. In this illegal war, the USA always loses, after the inevitable military victory.
Trump called for regime change, but soon retreated to smaller objectives, so that he could claim victory in any case. One scenario is the emergence of a weakened and isolated regime, with a shift in power towards the Revolutionary Guard, which would gradually restore the traditional policy of confrontation. Cost: the implosion of what remains of international laws, revealing a horizon of sequences of wars of aggression.
Democracies are not born from aerial bombings. There are indications that the CIA is arming Kurdish forces for an attack against the regime. A Syrian, Iraqi or Libyan type scenario should not be ruled out, with the fragmentation of Iran into regional potentates, voracious militias and terrorist groups. The overthrow of Mossadegh’s government, in the 1953 coup d’état organized by Washington and London, figures among the seeds of the ayatollahs’ seizure of power in 1979. Illusion of victory.
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