The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its projection for Brazilian production of liquid fuels in 2026, estimating that the country’s total supply, including biofuels, will grow by 160 thousand barrels per day (bpd), to an average of 4.6 million bpd, according to a monthly report released this Wednesday (11). On the other hand, the group warns that “operational challenges and unexpected interruptions” could affect expected production schedules.
According to OPEC, crude oil production fell by around 65,000 bpd in January to an average of 4.0 million bpd, while natural gas liquids (LNG) production remained “largely unchanged” at around 97,000 bpd. The group estimates that biofuel production, mainly ethanol, increased by 15,000 bpd compared with the previous month, to an average of 700,000 bpd, with preliminary data from February indicating a stable trend.
The report also informs that, in January, Brazil’s total production of liquid fuels fell by around 42 thousand bpd in the monthly comparison, to an average of 4.7 million bpd, but still represents an increase of 600 thousand bpd compared to the previous year.
For 2027, OPEC reiterated its projection for an increase in Brazilian production of liquid fuels, by 140 thousand bpd, to an average of 4.7 million bpd.
According to the report, upstream production should increase with the expansion of the Búzios (Franco), Bacalhau, Marlim and Wahoo projects, in addition to the start of operations in the Búzios field and the Pampo-Enchova Cluster. Oil projects are expected to come into operation in the Búzios field and in the Pampo-Enchova complex.
Gross Domestic Product
OPEC also reaffirmed Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projections for 2026 and 2027, at 2.0% and 2.2%, respectively.
The group expects economic growth to continue to expand next year, supported by monetary easing and continued strong domestic activity.
On the other hand, it warns that some uncertainties remain, especially regarding the “potentially lagged” impact of restrictive monetary policies and possibly “relatively more restrictive” fiscal policies.
