Mayor Eduardo Paes (PSD) leads all scenarios in the dispute for the government of Rio de Janeiro with more than 30 points of advantage against his opponents, according to the Real Time Big Data survey, released this Wednesday (11).
In the first scenario projected by the survey, Eduardo Paes has 46% of voting intentions in the state, followed by the state deputy and his biggest rival in the dispute and bet on Bolsonarism, Douglas Ruas (PL), who scores 13%. In third place, former governor Wilson Witzel (DC) and businessman Ítalo Marsili (Novo) are technically tied with 5% of the votes.
Check out the 1st scenario:
- Eduardo Paes (PSD) — 46%
- Douglas Ruas (PL) — 13%
- Italo Marsili (New) — 5%
- Wilson Witzel (DC) — 5%
- William Siri (PSOL) — 3%
- Firefighter Rafa Luz (Mission) — 2%
- Null / Blank — 10%
- NS / NR — 16%
In a scenario with the inclusion of former state deputy André Ceciliano (PT), Paes and Ruas retreat, scoring respectively 42% and 11% of voting intentions. The PT member wins 9% of voters in the projection.
Check out the 2nd scenario:
- Eduardo Paes (PSD) — 42%
- Douglas Ruas (PL) — 11%
- André Ceciliano (PT) — 9%
- Italo Marsili (New) — 5%
- Wilson Witzel (DC) — 5%
- William Siri (PSOL) — 2%
- Firefighter Rafa Luz (Mission) — 2%
- Null / Blank — 9%
- NS / NR — 15%
In a direct clash against Douglas Ruas, Paes leads the dispute with 51% of voting intentions compared to 19% for his rival. In this scenario, blanks and nulls total 11% while 19% did not know or did not want to answer.
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Rejection
The survey also questioned the electorate about who they no would vote if the elections in Rio took place this month. Wilson Witzel leads the rejection with 52%, but is followed by Paes who is also rejected by 39% of the electorate.
Check it out:
- Wilson Witzel (DC) — 52%
- Eduardo Paes (PSD) — 39%
- André Ceciliano (PT) — 38%
- William Siri (PSOL) — 26%
- Douglas Ruas (PL) — 23%
- Italo Marsili (New) — 19%
- Firefighter Rafa Luz (Mission) — 17%
The Real Time Big Data survey interviewed 2,000 voters in the state of Rio de Janeiro, between March 9th and 10th. The margin of error is estimated at 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number RJ-04191/2026.
