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The most recent models point to a much greater probability of developing, later this year, a strong — or even very strong — El Niño.
O and its “sister” correspond, respectively, to the hot and cold phases of a natural weather pattern in the tropical Pacific, known as a whole as the Southern Oscillation–El Niño, or ENSO, for its English acronym.
The planet oscillates irregularly between El Niño and La Niña at each two to seven yearsaltering ocean temperatures and disrupting wind and precipitation patterns in the tropics. This, in turn, triggers a series of indirect effects on a planetary scale.
El Niño also has a significant impact on temperatures global warming, by reducing the rate of heat absorption by the oceans and increasing atmospheric temperatures.
During a very strong El Niño episodethe global average temperature can temporarily rise by up to 0.2 ºC, and the maximum increase in the global average temperature tends to occur around three to four months later of El Niño conditions peaking in the tropical Pacific.
Over the past week, several modeling groups seeking to predict the future evolution of ENSO conditions have released projections that suggest it may be in the making. a very strong El Niño for the end of 2026.
As the climatologist explains Zeke Hausfather in an article published in , this is a significant overhaul in high face to previous forecasts, published in January and February, which pointed to the possible development of an El Niño, but a.
Historically, It has been difficult to accurately predict the evolution of ENSO at the beginning of the year — hence the known “spring predictability barrier”.
The results of an analysis carried out by Hausfather 11 climate models updated since the beginning of March clearly show that the development of a strong El Niño later in the year.
According to the climatologist, the median and mean of all models continue to point to a estimated increase in temperature around 2.5 ºCwhich would place this episode clearly above the El Niño of 2023/2024 and close to, if not even at the level of, what was observed in 2015/2016.
So what does this mean for global temperatures this year and in 2027?
Under normal conditions, the delay between the peak of El Niño conditions and the global surface temperature response would cause the largest impacts to occur. feel in 2027as El Niño episodes normally reach their peak between November and January.
Still, also should contribute to raising temperatures in 2026although probably not enough to set a new record this year.
It is important to maintain some caution, he says Hausfatherbut everything indicates that there is an increasing probability of 2027 is set to set a new recordperhaps with a significant margin, if the final value is at the upper end of the range currently projected for El Niño.
