How Russia is helping Iran (and the similarities to the war in Ukraine)

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How Russia is helping Iran (and the similarities to the war in Ukraine)

Artist’s rendering of Shahed-136 drones attacking an air base

Information provided to Iran reportedly comes from a fleet of satellites managed by the Russian Aerospace Forces. But Moscow also tells Tehran what it learned in Ukraine.

Russia has been strengthening intelligence sharing and military cooperation with Iran, according to sources, with the aim of helping Tehran maintain operational capacity in the face of military pressure from the United States and Israel.

Aid to Tehran includes the provision of satellite images and technological improvements applied to drones. Among the resources made available to Iran will be components adapted from drones Shaheddesigned to improve communications, navigation and attack accuracy. Russia will still be broadcasting lessons learned from the war in Ukraineincluding tactical guidance on the number of drones to employ in each operation and the most effective altitudes for attacks.

Cooperation between the two allies is not new, but, according to WSJ sources, it deepened in the early days of the ongoing war. In addition to providing Iran with information about the location of US forces in the Middle East and regional allies, Moscow also began making satellite images available directly to Tehran. Among the targets mentioned are an early warning radar associated with the Thaad anti-missile system in Jordan and other targets in Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman.

Russian aid may have increased Iranian effectiveness in identifying and selecting these targets, both before the attacks and in assessing damage after the impacts, experts say.

Satellite images, in particular, allow us to obtain detailed information about the position and movements of targets on land and at sea. According to Jim Lamson, a visiting researcher at King’s College London and a former CIA analyst specializing in the Iranian military, this type of data can be particularly useful if it includes information about specific types of aircraft, ammunition depots, air defense systems or naval movements.

The information provided to Iran reportedly comes from a fleet of satellites managed by the Russian Aerospace Forces.

Similar tactics

Iran demonstrated greater effectiveness in targeting US and Gulf state military assets than it had achieved during a 12-day war last year. Attacks, with drones, to saturate radars before launching missiles, are described as very similar to the tactics used by Russia in Ukraine.

Nicole Grajewski, professor at Sciences Po, in Paris, says that the pattern of Iranian attacks in the Gulf is today more focused on radars and command and control structures, clearly approaching the way in which Moscow conducts similar operations.

Trump was already suspicious

Russia has denied, despite everything, that it is providing Iran with intelligence information to support attacks.

Steve Witkoff, a US special envoy involved in negotiations with Moscow, said the Russians rejected that accusation. Now Donald Trump admitted he believed Moscow could be helping Tehran “a little bit”.

The White House, for its part, minimized the impact of possible external assistance, maintaining that it does not alter North American operational success. According to spokeswoman Olivia Wales, the United States struck more than 7,000 targets and destroyed more than 100 Iranian naval vessels, which contributed to a 90% reduction in missile attacks and a 95% reduction in drone attacks.

Although Russia and Iran do not maintain a formal military alliance, Tehran is described as Moscow’s closest partner in the Middle East. The relationship between the two countries has deepened since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Commissions and working groups were created to exchange military lessons, there were regular visits by delegations and joint training of troops, and Russia itself participated in the development and launch of one of the latest Iranian satellite systems.

But the most important link in this partnership was Iran’s supply of the Shahed drones used by Russia in the war against Ukraine. After starting to use them in the field, Moscow began producing these devices internally and introducing improvements to increase accuracy and resistance to electronic interference. Part of these innovations will now be returned to Iran.

Of course, for now, Moscow is highly conditioned by the war in Ukraine and the prudence of not antagonizing Trump excessively. But help is still help.

For Russia, the conflict even brings some advantages. Pressure on US arsenals reduces the stock of air defense interceptors available to Ukraine. And instability in the Strait of Hormuz has boosted oil prices, which is also favorable for the Russian economy.

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