Maxwell Orlosky / US Navy
Carrier Strike Group 12, the strike group of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford
Israeli officials have said that securing the strait for energy transport could become the main objective of the war now that regime change and the end of Iran’s ability to obtain a nuclear weapon appear to be out of reach.
The massive deployment of additional US forces to the Middle East and Donald Trump’s threat to “obliterate” Iran’s energy infrastructure have set the stage for what American and Israeli security officials increasingly see as the possible outcome of the war: a battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz and strategic energy installations, writes .
The reopening of the strait, a vital corridor for global energy supplies, has emerged as perhaps the primary objective of a war that, according to security officials, is unlikely to achieve the goals that, for brief moments, seemed possible at the beginning of the operation Israeli-American military, including the overthrow of the theocratic Iranian regime and the definitive removal of Tehran from the possibility of obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Alternatively, break Iran’s dominance over the straits could allow Trump end the war by claiming victoryhalt an expanding global energy crisis and depriving Iran of a powerful deterrent instrument against future attacks — which senior Israeli officials described as inevitable if Tehran resumes production of ballistic missiles or advances in the development of a nuclear weapon.
In Israel, the Trump’s threats increased expectations that a new phase of the war could begin soon, with the arrival of reinforcements American military.
A contingent of 4,500 sailors and marines North Americans are on their way to the Middle East, including an infantry battalion landing supported by helicopters, F-35 fighters and amphibious armored vehicles.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon has also accelerated the mobilization of a similar unit, the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unitfrom San Diego, Defense officials said last week.
“These marines are not here to serve as decoration“, said an Israeli official, one of several who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss military and sensitive information issues.
An Iranian military spokesman said on Sunday that Iran would retaliate against attacks on your oil and gas assets hitting energy targets linked to the United States, information technology and water desalination infrastructures in the Persian Gulf region.
On Sunday, following Trump’s threat, the Iranian Mehr agency warned the Gulf States to “say goodbye to electricity“, publishing a map of power plants in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and along the Gulf Coast.
Meanwhile, Tehran bombed Israel this Sunday with one of its most violent air raids to date. Two ballistic missiles directly hit two locations in southern Israel, injuring 115 people. One of the towns, Dimona, is located approximately 13 km of a nuclear research facility.
The president of the Iranian parliament stated on X that, if Israel was unable to intercept the missiles in Dimona, “this is, in operational terms, a sign of entry into a new phase of the battle… The skies of Israel are defenseless“.
Iranian state television framed the attack as reprisal for an alleged attack on Saturday on Iran’s Natanz nuclear complex, but the Israeli army said it was not aware of any attack on that facility.
The new American deployment signals a plan “to take the island and the strait“, said the Israeli official, referring to , Iran’s main oil export hub.
Doing so could allow the US and Israel cut off Tehran’s oil revenues and offer a political exit to a president who, according to the Israeli official, “need to show that the strait is open“.
“The Strait of Hormuz is an international waterwayand Iran kidnapped her,” he said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, political science professor from the United Arab Emirates. “The world has to be a little more united and determined to recover it from the hands of a kidnapper“.
The growing level of Israeli-American concern over the strait has been underscored by Trump’s latest attempt to shape the course of the war through social media.
“If Iran does not FULLY OPEN, NO THREATSthe Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this precise moment, the United States of America will attack and obliterate its various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST!” published Trump on the Truth Social platform.
At the same time, Trump’s unusual decision to lift oil sanctions against Iran, potentially giving his enemy access to new revenue, has led even Republicans to speak out new concerns about the direction and merits of the war.
Iran has used an arsenal of conventional weapons and asymmetric capabilities to paralyze maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuzreducing it from up to 130 tankers per day in peacetime to one residual number authorized by Iranian authorities to transit.
U.S. strikes have hit Iranian positions along the Gulf shipping corridor, destroying missile launch sites, suspected mine-laying vessels and small vessels capable of advancing at great speed against vulnerable oil tankers — but contributed little to alleviate the almost total paralysis of tanker traffic.
Any operation to secure the Strait would fall mainly on the USAdue to its naval capabilities and the experience of its commanders, officials said.
Still, an operation to reestablish commercial traffic in the strait could take at least several weeks, put sailors at risk and other US forces, and expose US warships to attacks from hidden coastal positions, underwater mines and drones launched from the air or from below the surface of the water.
Keeping the channel open could mean committing U.S. military and intelligence resources to escort and threat monitoring missions for an indefinite period of time — with any successful attack by Iran would sow panic in energy markets and in the maritime transport industry.
Nonetheless, Israel and the US continued to bomb Iran. Around 1,500 people, including 208 children, have been killed in Iran, according to its Ministry of Health. In Lebanon, Israeli attacks have killed at least 1,029 people since March 2, the Ministry of Public Health reported on Sunday.
