Live cattle arroba prices should remain more sustained throughout 2026, with prices on the international market close to US$70 to US$75 per arroba, according to an estimate from consultancy MB Agro. The scenario is supported by a more restricted supply of animals and the increase in domestic consumption in Brazil.
The consultancy also warns of the possibility of moments of volatility in the market, especially in the face of possible changes in Chinese imports, whether due to adjustments in quotas or changes in the country’s trade policy.
During the 12th Nutripura Symposium, Economist and Partner at MB Agro, Alexandre Mendonça de Barros, highlighted that the Brazilian economy has shown signs of warming and could help sustain domestic consumption for beef.
“The unemployment rate is at the lowest level in recent decades, the job market remains tight and workers’ income has shown consistent growth”, he highlighted in his talk at the Symposium.
The economist also reports that real income in the country has been increasing by around 4% per year in the last two years. Considering inflation close to 4.5%, workers’ nominal income grows close to 9.5% per year.
“This increase in purchasing power should boost food consumption and help sustain the beef market,” he commented.
Also according to MB Agro’s survey, the domestic market itself already demonstrates the capacity to sustain a small amount in certain locations, even without considering the impact of exports.
Supply reduction
Furthermore, Brazilian livestock farming is already in a . In recent years, the country has recorded a record volume of slaughters, the result of an intense cycle of discarding females from the herd.
Recent data from IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) indicate that Brazil slaughtered animals in 2025, an increase of 8.2% compared to 2024. The previous record had occurred in 2013, when around 34 million animals were slaughtered.
“The jump represents almost 10 million additional heads compared to past cycles”, highlighted Mendonça de Barros.
The economist also highlights that part of this growth is associated with increased productivity in Brazilian livestock farming, but another significant part occurred because there was a reduction in the stock of females in the herd.
“With fewer matrices available, replacing animals becomes more expensive and ranchers start retaining more females to rebuild the herd”, he informed.
The direct consequence is a reduction in the number of animals sent to slaughter. As a result, MB Agro’s projections indicate a drop of close to 7% in slaughtered volume, which represents around 3 million fewer heads.
After two consecutive years of significant growth in cattle slaughter, initial records show a retraction of close to 6.5% compared to the same period of the previous year.
“This change occurs at a time of strong international demand for beef”, pointed out the economist.
International Market
In the United States, for example, meat prices have reached historic record levels. Ground beef reached the highest value ever recorded, a clear sign of a shortage of supply in the American market.
The cattle herd in the United States is going through a period of contraction. The stock of females in the country is at its lowest level in the last 75 years.
“Even with record prices for calves, which already reach around US$11.00/kg and can reach US$12.00 or US$13.00/kg, many producers have not yet started a significant process of retaining matrices, explained the economist.
Given this scenario, Mendonça de Barros assesses that the international market will continue to have restricted supply and heated demand. For Brazil, this means a favorable environment for livestock farming in the coming years.
“This tends to boost international prices and open up space for greater Brazilian exports”, pointed out Mendonça de Barros.
