The conflict in the Middle East is increasing concern over fertilizers, at an important stage for global agriculture. The central point is simple: when there are disruptions in energy, shipping and the raw materials used to produce fertilizers, the risk of rising costs spreads rapidly along the food chain, worsening the risk of a crisis.
The pressure comes, straight away, from a strategic area for world trade. The United Nations Agency dedicated to Trade and Development () highlights that the Strait of Hormuz transports around a quarter of the world’s maritime oil trade, in addition to relevant volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. The same organization says that the military escalation that began on February 28 disrupted maritime flows in that passage, with repercussions on energy markets, transport and global supply chains.
Fertilizers at the center of tension
Fertilizers are particularly sensitive to this type of crisis because they rely heavily on energy. The European Commission (EC) recalls that gas represented up to 90% of the variable cost of producing nitrogen fertilizers at peak times and the FAO says that natural gas is an essential raw material for nitrogen fertilizers. This helps to understand why any gas or oil shock ends up putting pressure on agricultural costs almost immediately.
FAO itself warned, in March, about the region’s weight in world supply. According to the organization, the Middle East has represented around 30% to 35% of global urea exports and around 20% to 30% of ammonia exports, in addition to approximately 30% of fertilizer trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
It does not mean that global supplies will fail overnight, but it does mean that any blockage or delay in that area could have an impact far beyond the region.
In Europe, the problem may arise more from external dependence than from an immediate stock shortage. The EC, through its relationship with agriculture, indicates that the EU depends on imports for around 30% of the inorganic nitrogen it consumes, 68% of the phosphates and 85% of the potash. This makes the European market vulnerable to external shocks, especially when they affect energy, transport and major trade corridors.
Therefore, even if there is not, for now, a general shortage of fertilizers in Europe, the increase in price remains a real risk. UNCTAD warns that higher energy, fertilizer and transport costs could increase food costs and worsen pressure on more fragile families and economies. In other words, the impact may appear first in price and only later, in certain cases, in availability.
Agriculture enters a sensitive phase
The timing doesn’t help either. Spring is an important phase in several geographies in the northern hemisphere and WFP has already warned that this disruption comes at a time when supply chains, fuel and logistics costs are under pressure. When fertilizers become more expensive or arrive later, many farmers are forced to review quantities, application schedules or even the crops they will sow.
This effect may take some time to reach the consumer, but it usually spreads. Lower fertilization efficiency can translate into higher production costs and, in some cases, lower productivity. In a global market that is already very interconnected, small disturbances in strategic points can generate chain consequences, from agricultural exploration to the final price of food.
The greatest risk is in the most fragile countries
The consequences can be especially harsh in countries with greater dependence on imports. UNCTAD notes that several vulnerable countries could see access to fertilizers worsen with the disruptions in Hormuz.
At the same time, the WFP says that 363 million people are at risk of acute hunger in 2026 and that 45 million face this risk because of the conflict in the Middle East, which shows how an energy and logistics crisis can quickly turn into a food crisis.
For Portugal, the impact of a food crisis tends to be mainly indirect, but that does not mean that it is irrelevant. Being part of the European market, the country is exposed to international fluctuations in fertilizers, energy and logistics costs. If the tension continues, the most likely effect will be additional pressure on agricultural production costs and, ultimately, food prices.
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