“The US has already lost him in Iran. They don’t have a way out, but neither do they have a strategy for success. The goal of a quick and decisive victory with regime change has failed miserably and the war has now become a “war of attrition” that favors Iran.Professor John Mearsheimer, one of the most well-known and influential American political scientists and theorists of international relations, recently stated in a television appearance.
As he noted “There was no reason for the US to get involved. Iran was not a threat to the US. The war was fought mainly because of pressure from Israel and the powerful Israeli lobby in the US. Trump was dragged into it, as he was with the Iraq war in 2003. Iran has a strategic advantage. It doesn’t need to win conventionally — as long as it survives and causes massive damage to the global economy (eg closing the Straits of Hormuz or attacking infrastructure in the Gulf, with drones and missiles. It has proven its ability to hit key targets.”
Professor Mearsheimer is a catalyst for both the US and Israel. He has warned that if Israel is in a tight spot and loses, it is very likely to use nuclear weapons, as well “there is no more ruthless state on the planet than Israel”.
The professor sees the war as a strategic disaster for the US, as it sends a message of weakness to arch-rivals China and Russia.
Who is John Mearsheimer?
John Mearsheimer is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago where he has taught since 1982. After graduating from the US Military Academy (West Point) in 1970, he served five years as an officer in the US Air Force, reaching the rank of captain.
He is the main exponent of the theory of offensive realism, a variant of neorealism, where he argues that great powers are constantly competing for hegemony at the regional level due to the anarchic nature of the international system, and this often leads to wars.
He has written two very important books, which are considered among the most influential in the field of geopolitical studies. In 2001 he published “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics” and in 2007 “The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy”, which caused much controversy.
He has received many awards, such as the Quantrell Award for teaching in Chicago, has been elected a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (2003), and has honorary doctorates from universities in China, Greece and Romania.
He is known for his critical analyzes of current affairs, such as the 2003 Iraq War, the Ukraine War, the tragic developments in Palestine, the rise of China, and most recently the Iran War.
“Russia is the ‘clear winner’, India the big loser,” he said a few days ago, referring to the energy crisis caused by the war in Iran.
“It is almost impossible for me to see how Israel and the US will win this war. The likelihood that this war will produce an Iranian regime subservient to Israel and the US is close to zero, in my estimation. For Iran to win, it just needs to survive and not end up a pawn of Israel and the US,” he wrote recently.
In an interview on March 16, he said: “We are not winning against Iran. We don’t win. What message are we sending? We are sending a message that we are a bunch of idiots. We have started a war that we cannot win. Iran doesn’t need a navy; all it needs are missiles to hit whoever it wants.”
In another televised appearance he emphasized: “It is clear that the war is not going well for the United States and that President Trump would like to end it. The problem he faces is that he can’t find a way out. No one in his government can present a convincing narrative of how this war will end.”
“Starting this war was a colossal mistake. If you’re going to start a war, this is the last war you want to start. The Iranians hold the best cards,” he pointed out.
Implications for Europe
He has repeatedly stressed that this war will have devastating consequences for Europe, mainly because of the EU’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil and gas, combined with cuts in Russian gas imports.
“The Europeans are going to be hit very hard if the flow of oil from the Gulf countries is drastically reduced for a prolonged period of time. Europe has no strategic benefit from this war, but will pay a heavy price in high energy prices, inflation, recession and further destabilization. European leaders are aware of it, but they can’t do much to deal with it,” he emphasized recently.
