The intensity of the conflict with Iran is beginning to take its toll on the US arsenal. According to an analysis published by the British think tank Royal United Services Institute, reserves of some of the most advanced defense and attack systems in the United States could be depleted in a matter of weeks if the current pace of combat is maintained.
The report, prepared by analysts MacDonald Amoah, Morgan D. Bazilian and Lieutenant Colonel Jahara Matisek, outlines a worrying scenario: the interceptors of the THAAD anti-missile system could be depleted around April 17, while the reserves of ATACMS and PrSM tactical missiles would do so even earlier, around April 12.
Accelerated wear
The problem is not only the sophistication of these systems, but the speed at which they are being used. In the first 16 days of war, the United States and its allies in the Middle East have used more than 11,000 munitions. Of them, nearly 5,000 were shot in the first four days of the conflict alone.
This rate of consumption responds to the nature of the confrontation. Iran has combined drone and missile attacks, forcing the deployment of complex defensive systems. And neutralizing each threat is not always efficient: in some cases, intercepting a single projectile may require multiple missiles.
Analysts warn that this dynamic is hardly sustainable. As radars and detection systems degrade—at least a dozen have been damaged, according to the report—defense effectiveness declines, forcing even more interceptors to be deployed for each threat.
Key systems at risk
The THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) system is one of the pillars of American missile defense. Designed to intercept ballistic missiles within the atmosphere, each of its interceptors can cost up to $15 million. Currently, the United States maintains between two and three batteries deployed in the Middle East.
For their part, the ATACMS missiles and their successor, the PrSM, are high-precision ground attack weapons capable of hitting targets at more than 300 kilometers. The PrSM, furthermore, is one of the Pentagon’s recent bets and has been used for the first time in this conflict.
However, production capacity does not keep up with the pace of use. According to data from the Department of Defense, the United States has manufactured just over 300 PrSM missiles in the last two years, with just over a hundred additional planned for this year.
The impact goes beyond Iran
The report not only warns about the current front. The real risk, analysts emphasize, is strategic. The depletion of these reserves could compromise the United States’ deterrence capacity in other key theaters, such as the Indo-Pacific.
Furthermore, the replacement of this weaponry is not immediate. As an example, the analysis estimates that replacing more than 500 Tomahawk missiles used in the conflict could take at least five years.
Added to this is a structural problem: dependence on critical raw materials. Replenishing ammunition – including some 500,000 20mm rounds used in anti-aircraft systems – requires large quantities of tungsten, a metal of which China controls more than 80% of the global supply.
More risk, less margin
Although Iranian attacks have decreased in intensity after the first days – with drops of 86% in ballistic missiles and 73% in drones, according to US military data – the pressure on defensive systems remains high.
Analysts conclude that the US-led coalition can continue fighting, but at the cost of taking greater risks: less interception capacity, greater exposure of critical infrastructure and a reduction in global room for maneuver.
In this context, they recommend urgently strengthening the defense industrial base and betting on a “hybrid shield” that combines cheaper systems with advanced technologies. The key, they point out, is no longer just dominating the battlefield, but also guaranteeing resupply capacity.
