The March IPCA-15 result reinforces the role of agriculture as a vector for relieving inflation in Brazil, but raises a warning for the coming months given the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
According to an analysis by Arnaldo Lima, leader of the institutional relations area at Polo Capital, the recent behavior of consumer prices still reflects a favorable environment in the countryside, marked by good supply and productivity gains.
The strong performance of agriculture in 2025 helped to contain inflation, especially in the food at home group. This movement also appears in wholesale prices, with emphasis on the performance of the agricultural IPA-DI, driven by robust harvests and greater production efficiency.
As a result, the transfer to the final consumer was limited, keeping food inflation relatively low — with an increase of 1.8% in 12 months until February — and contributing to a more moderate full IPCA, at 3.8%.
Despite this benign scenario, the assessment is that the situation can change. The intensification of the war in the Middle East is already beginning to put pressure on fuels, with a direct impact on inflation rates. In March’s IPCA-15, diesel rose 3.8%, reflecting the rise in oil prices on the international market.
According to the analyst, the increase in fuel prices represents a negative supply shock, with the potential to interrupt the food disinflation process. This is because diesel is a central input for transport and the operation of the agricultural chain.
In addition to the direct effect on freight, there are relevant indirect impacts. The rise in oil and natural gas tends to increase the cost of fertilizers — mostly imported — and stimulate demand for biofuels, putting pressure on wholesale agricultural prices.
In Polo’s assessment, if the conflict prolongs, food inflation could cease to be a relieving factor and return to pressure on the IPCA in the coming months, especially given the rise in logistics costs and inputs in the field.
