One of the main showcases of the government of the President of the Republic, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Minha Casa, Minha Vida will undergo another series of updates, now in the middle of the election year. The changes promise to boost the program, which already accounts for more than half of new residential property sales in the country.
In the view of analysts, the new rules tend to increase the number of families with the power to buy their own home, opening space for construction companies to increase the volume of launches and the speed of sales, as well as the final price of homes, maximizing their profits.
The new adjustment was proposed less than a year after the last update and comes to light at a time when the largest construction companies in the segment have recorded growing profits, with margins above the historical average, as shown by the BroadcastGrupo Estado’s real-time news system.
The changes
The rules update (see information below) was presented by the Ministry of Cities at the beginning of March to the Permanent Support Group (GAP), which advises the Service Time Guarantee Fund (FGTS). The fund uses workers’ money to finance the purchase of properties at interest rates well below market rates. This Tuesday, the 24th, the FGTS Board of Trustees will meet to approve the government’s proposal.
What is said in Brasília is that the change was proposed to follow the value of the minimum wage, readjusted this year to R$1,621. Thus, the increase in MCVM range 1 to R$3,200 will serve to maintain its equivalence to two minimum wages. Without this, families would fall into bracket 2, which has higher interest rates. Consequently, the other tracks will also need to be readjusted. When contacted, the Ministry did not grant an interview.
Market vision
Analysts noted that the government changed its stance and began not only carrying out periodic maintenance, but also changing the rules to expand the program. “We are seeing a slightly greater frequency of adjustments, unlike what happened in the past, when two to three years would pass without changes. Back then, the program was outdated, profit margins were deteriorating and companies were stopping starting new projects”, observed BTG Pactual real estate market analyst, Gustavo Cambauva.
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In his view, there was no need for new adjustments to ensure the profitability of large construction companies, which are at high levels. However, there is an explicit desire from the government to expand the program, whose hiring target was raised from 2 million to 3 million. By the end of 2025, they were at 2.1 million. “The hiring was already very good in 2024 and 2025. If they did nothing, 2026 would already be another good year. But to reach the new goal, it is necessary to further expand the size of the program and accelerate it”, pointed out Cambauva.
Cury – one of the largest in the sector – says it is ready to expand property launches and sales in 2026, given the favorable contracting conditions. “The outlook is very good. In the past, the program had gaps in updating the rules, and hiring was slow. Now, the government understands that it needs to make adjustments from time to time”, said the co-president of Cury, Leonardo Mesquita. According to him, the new adjustments will serve to increase the volume of projects during the year, but also to increase prices where there is stronger demand. Other companies also warned investors that they will follow the same path, such as MRV.
Santander construction analyst Fanny Oreng said she expected business to accelerate with the new updates. “This will greatly help purchasing power, so we expect an acceleration in sales, growth in launches or improvement in profitability. The effect will depend greatly on the company’s profile”, he stated.
Oreng also defended periodic adjustments as a way to prevent hiring conditions from becoming outdated.
The analyst recalled that companies in the segment transfer the customer to bank financing immediately after the sale of the property off-plan – and not just after handing over the keys, as happens outside the MCMV. Therefore, the construction companies in the program do not count on monetary correction of the installments throughout the works. Companies need to have “fat” in their budgets to deal with rising costs, something that happened during the pandemic and brought down profits at the time.
“We are a country that has relevant inflation. If the program does not make adjustments, contracting conditions will deteriorate. And ahead, there is fear of a cost shock, depending on what will happen with fuel prices and other commodities”, commented the analyst, citing the uncertainties of the external scenario.
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The coordinator of construction studies at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), Ana Maria Castelo, considered that it will be necessary to monitor whether the increase in income ranges and property price ceilings will not cause the opposite effect, that is, fewer units contracted. This is because the changes can generate an increase in the average price of financed properties. “When the value of the property increases, the number of units that are contracted decreases, unless the year’s budget is increased in the same proportion”, he pointed out.
Castelo also noted that the adjustments have exceeded sectoral inflation (INCC), which was 6.1% in 2025. As a result, they will actually serve to sustain the growth of Minha Casa, and fulfill the objective of serving more middle-class families – who are struggling to buy their own home outside the program, where financing has high interest rates. “The increase in income brackets brings a portion of the middle class population into the program. This was deliberate. President Lula has already said this publicly”, he highlighted.
With all this in mind, the sector has become a kind of “safe haven” for the real estate market. In the city of São Paulo, Minha Casa accounts for 61% of launches and 64% of sales of new properties, according to research by the Housing Union (Secovi-SP). On the national average, participation is just above 50%, according to the Brazilian Chamber of the Construction Industry (CBIC).
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Big numbers
Contracts under Minha Casa, Minha Vida totaled 2.1 million units in this government until the end of last year, with R$578.4 thousand in 2023, 707.6 thousand in 2024 and 813.9 thousand in 2025.
To reach the target of 3 million units, it will be necessary to increase hiring to 900 thousand this year.
The budget, to date, is R$178 billion, divided as follows: R$8.9 billion from the General Budget of the Union, which mainly serves band 1; R$24.8 billion from the pre-salt social fund, allocated to band 4; and R$144.5 billion from the FGTS, which covers bands 1 to 3. This budget has not yet included the adjustments deliberated by the FGTS board of trustees on Tuesday. In 2025, the total budget was around R$180 billion, and in 2024, R$132.5 billion.
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