Centrist candidate who tried to escape polarization never managed to go to the 2nd round until now; In 1989, the election for Planalto was single and the left split to come in 2nd place
In the 9 presidential elections held in Brazil since 1989, no candidate from the so-called 3rd way, from the center or alternative to the polarization between left and right, prospered. The results show that this movement is yet another wishful thinking (when desire is confused with real probability) from part of the country’s elite and has no connection with reality.
O Poder360 compiled the results of all elections for president since redemocratization. The data is from the page (with historical electoral data and maintained by this digital newspaper since 2000).
Polls today indicate that the 2026 dispute is crystallized between (PT) and (PL). Recent history indicates that it is unlikely that a viable name from the so-called political center or some other trend will emerge to displace any of these 2.
In the next intertitles, a summary of how the political forces scored in each year:
1989 ELECTIONS
That year’s election was the first direct election for the Presidency of the Republic after the military dictatorship (1964-1985). It was a single election, just for president – a situation that differs from the current one, in which candidates for president, governor, senator, federal deputy, state deputy and district deputy are voted on the same day and campaign during the same period.
The 1989 election was the only one with a 3rd competitive candidate since Brazil’s return to democracy.
There was a clear polarization between a candidate more to the right, who was represented by (at the time in the PRN), and 2 others more to the left, (PT) and (PDT). The 3rd place in that dispute would be the tucano (1930-2001), but he failed and came in 4th place. He had no real chance of winning at any point.
Brizola came in 3rd place, but only 0.7 percentage points behind Lula. The two were competing for the same part of the electorate, on the left, which was divided, and therefore it would be incorrect to say that the Pedetist represented at that time a 3rd way.
The 1989 election, however, was the only one of the 9 presidential races since redemocratization in which the difference between 2nd and 3rd place was below 5 percentage points. The infographic below shows voting in the 1st round:
1994 ELECTION
That year (PSDB) was riding on the popularity of the Real Plan, which reduced inflation in the country and brought stability to the economy. He became the central candidate of the election with this trump card. He was elected in the 1st round.
Lula came in 2nd place, 19.7 percentage points ahead of 3rd place, which was (Prona). Orestes Quércia (1938-2010), former governor of São Paulo and candidate of the then powerful PMDB, only received 4.4% of the votes in the 1st round.
The 1994 election also marked the beginning of polarization between PT and PSDB, which lasted until the 2014 dispute.
1998 ELECTION
This was the 1st dispute after the possibility of re-election was approved. FHC won in the 1st round again. Lula was once again in 2nd position.
(PPS, at the time) contested his first presidential election. He finished in 3rd place, more than 20 points behind Lula:
2002 ELECTION
It was the election that marked the arrival of the PT to the Presidency. Lula won the 1st and 2nd rounds. Defeated (PSDB). 3rd place that year was (PSB, at the time).
After Brizola, Garotinho was the 3rd placed team that came closest to going to the 2nd round. Even so, he was more than 5 points behind Serra.
The PSB candidate was a controversial political personality. He acted more like a popular leader with a sometimes pro-left speech. It did not emulate the 3rd way spirit that some parties try today.
ELECTIONS 2006
Lula came in 1st place in the 1st round even after heavy wear and tear due to Mensalão, a case revealed the previous year. He competed in the 2nd round with (PSDB). The PT member was victorious in the end and was re-elected.
3rd place at that time went to , from Psol. The socialist party contested its first presidential election in 2006 and had its best performance so far. She, however, was 34.79 percentage points behind Alckmin.
2010 ELECTION
The dispute had (PT) as the winner. She had been nominated by Lula for his succession. It was presented as the “PAC’s mother”the growth acceleration program (a set of works with a strong injection of public money).
Lula in his last year in office and the impression one had when looking back at that time was that the PT member would have been able to elect any politician he wanted to nominate.
The tucano (PSDB) even went to the 2nd round, but ended up defeated. 3rd place in that election was (PV, at the time), also leftist, who finished 13.28 percentage points behind 2nd place.
2014 ELECTION
It was the election in which (PT) was re-elected, despite being weakened due to the protests against his government with different demands that had been carried out the previous year.
Its main opponent was (PSDB), which went to the 2nd round, but ended up defeated.
(PSB, at the time) came in 3rd place again in that dispute. She was originally a candidate for vice president, but took over as head of the PSB ticket when the politician died in a plane crash about 2 months before the election.
The commotion over the tragic death of the former governor of Pernambuco boosted Marina’s candidacy, which soared in the polls shortly after the episode and even tied with Dilma in the most relevant polls. Afterwards, it lost traction, but managed to maintain the trust of around 1/5 of the electorate until voting day. Even so, it was 12.23 points behind 2nd place:
2018 ELECTION
That year’s dispute was another strongly polarized one between right and left.
(PSL at the time) defeated in the 2nd round (PT), who assumed the candidacy for President after Lula was formally barred from the race by the TSE (Superior Electoral Court). The former president for convictions in the Lava Jato operation. It had been included in the Clean Record Law.
Bolsonaro knew how to use social media to his advantage. It also took advantage of the beginning of the , which was not renewed and was unable to maintain a convincing anti-PT discourse for part of society.
he came in 3rd place in that election, 16.81 points behind Haddad. He tried to present himself as an option to polarization, but he didn’t come close to going to the 2nd round.
2022 ELECTION
arrived at the dispute weakened by the impacts of the covid-19 pandemic on the economy and social behavior.
The then president had made several comments considered insensitive during the health crisis (such as ). He ended up being the main target of almost all the candidates in that election because of this behavior. He even reached the 2nd round, but lost to Lula by a difference of just around 2 million votes. Became the 1st.
Squid . He became the oldest politician to take office to command the Planalto (he was 77 years old, today he is 80).
(MDB at the time) came in 3rd place, but 39.04 percentage points behind Bolsonaro. (PDT, at the time) came in 4th place, with 3.04% of valid votes. It was another election without a competitive 3rd way.
ELECTION 2026
The 1st round will be on October 4th.
(PT) and (PL) are ahead of the latest voting intention polls. In 2nd round simulations, there is a tie between the 2 in most of the more serious surveys.
Today’s scenario rules out the possibility of a 3rd competitive way. The PSD, the party most at the center of the political spectrum, still decides who it will propose to run for Planalto: whether it will be (governor of Goiás) or (governor of Rio Grande do Sul). The tendency is for Caiado to be chosen.
The governor of Goiás is known for being more hardline on issues such as security and so-called security issues. “costumes” –which involve abortion and drug release. He has aligned himself more intensely in recent years with right-wing politicians.
The reading that some analysts have today is that Caiado could share votes in this political field with Flávio and that perhaps the dispute even reminds us a little of what happened in 1989. That year, 1 right-wing candidate came in 1st place and 2 left-wing candidates competed for 2nd place. This year, this scenario could be the opposite: 1 leftist in 1st and 2 rightists trying to reach the 2nd round.
Jair Bolsonaro’s son senator is a candidate who is not yet very well known. During the campaign period, the tendency is for Lula, the left and even some more central parties to concentrate their artillery on him.
The AtlasIntel survey carried out from March 18th to 23rd and on Wednesday (25th March) shows that, for now, the left-right polarization remains predominant:
The research carried out 5,028 interviews. The confidence interval is 95%. The margin of error is 1 percentage point, plus or minus. The survey is registered with the TSE under number BR-04227/2026. The research cost R$75,000 and was paid for with its own resources.
There is no sign that a 3rd way candidate will be able to succeed in the near future. The pattern of past elections reinforces this direction for this year’s dispute.
A center name that opposes polarization seems to be something yet to be built in Brazil. Meanwhile, the polarization grows more solid.
