Percentage corresponds to the target ceiling established by the CMN; bank increased projection for Selic from 12.25% to 13% per year
The estimate for the annual IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) rate increased from 3.8% to 4.5%. The percentage is equivalent to the target ceiling (3%), which allows a tolerance of up to 1.5 percentage points.
The bank said that the price index will be pressured by the increase in fuel prices due to “a higher equilibrium oil price”. He also cited concern about the greater “inflationary inertia and fertilizer prices in 2027”.
The bank also increased its projection for the basic rate, the Selic, from 12.25% to 13%, after the start of the , which impacted commodity prices, especially oil. According to Itaú, conflicts impact inflation and can slow down the economy. Here is the report (PDF – 2 MB).
The bank did not change its GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth estimates, currently at +1.9% in 2026 and +1.7% in 2027. It said, however, that the slowdown in the global economy has been offset by the positive effect of the rise in oil prices and the incorporation of a more positive scenario for housing credit.
“The upward bias that existed for 2026 decreased in the face of a possible more intense global slowdown resulting from the conflict. In the labor market, we also preserved our estimates for the unemployment rate at 5.7% in 2026 and 6.0% in 2027”said Itaú.
The more uncertain environment encouraged Itaú to change the deficit estimate in current transactions in the external sector from R$66 billion to R$70 billion.
The document says that the real has been resilient. Itaú maintained its exchange rate projections at R$5.40 in 2026 and R$5.60 in 2027.
PUBLIC ACCOUNTS
Itaú improved projections for the central government’s primary result. He said that revenue linked to oil will make it possible to increase revenue. Estimates for the 2026 primary deficit went from -0.8% of GDP to -0.5% of GDP.
The deficit estimated by Itaú for 2027 fell from 0.9% of GDP to 0.6% of GDP.
